Edit: It is an honor to be included on the companion website of Professor Sul: https://personal.utdallas.edu/ During this summer, I decided to explore and to understand the concept…
The moment generating function can be quite obscure for students. We have a definition here. Quite obscure, isn’t it! In this blog, I will show a simple example…
Truly honored to present our new NBER paper, written Joshua Aizenman, Rashad Ahmed, Gazi Salah Uddin, at the International Monetary Fund’s External Sector Seminar : www.nber.org. On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves During…
J’ai eu la chance de discuter des causes de l’inflation actuelle le jeudi 16 mars dans le cadre du colloque annuel de l’association Strasbourg Alsace – Place Financière…
It is an immense pleasure to announce that the Special Issue of International Economics is now online: The European Economy in the Time of COVID-19: Towards a New…
In this blog, I will show how to build a model of the fragility of an incomplete monetary union. The idea is to find the optimal inflation rule…
Our recent research, written with Rashad Ahmed, Joshua Aizenman, and Gazi Salah Uddin, on the mitigating effect of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle,…
In my previous post, we saw that we can derive Cobb-Douglas production function from CES production function when the elasticity of substitution is equal to zero. In this…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize CES production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus Prettner…
Cette étude est une tentative de mise en perspective des enjeux des accords de libre-échange pour l’Union européenne (UE). Dans une première partie sont utilisés les acquis de la littérature…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the role of foreign exchange (FX) reserves and other fundamental factors in explaining cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the…
Let me repost this compilation of data sources posted by Menzie Chinn in the very interesting blog EconBrowser. This compilation is a must-read for every student in economics!
NEW WORKING PAPER: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that few of my most viewed posts will help some of…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end,…
In the Appendix A of this book: Statistics: Principles and Methods written by Giuseppe Cicchitelli, Pierpaolo D’Urso and Marco Minozzo published by Pearson in 2021, I found the…
NEW PUBLICATION: We can use Fourier Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, time-varying fiscal reaction functions and threshold fiscal reactions functions. Over the period spanning from 1870 to 2017, we…
It is a great pleasure and an honor to announce that I wrote my first blog for APTECH with Eric Clower. In this blog, we will look more…
The positional average known as the skewness allows you to assess the symmetry of a distribution. When the skewness is to zero, then the distribution is symmetric. You…
During this summer, I decided to explore and to understand the concept of common factors in panel data econometrics, which are a very important thing, in the exchange…
NEW PUBLICATION: The answer is yes. When the credit-to-GDP ratio is above 96.5%, the effect of a further development of bank credit on the economic growth is not…
NEW PUBLICATION: It was very interesting to explore how political tensions between China and the US impact the oil market. The originality of our approach lies in the…
The Big-O notation may seem quite obscure when you see it for the first time. A good way to intuitively understand this notation is to consider the case…
Let me draw your attention to this very pedagogical GAUSS blog on the Kalman filter. It links very well the theory and the code. Please find below the…
In this blog, we will see how to merge two datasets with different county code in a few simple steps. In my previous blog, I have shown how…
In this blog, I will show you in a few simple steps how to use the database aggregator DBnomics to retrieve some data with Stata. In a previous…
This is it! You now need 1 dollar to buy 1 euro. To get this picture below, I used the FRED connection with Mathematica 13.1, as I explained…
Avec une certaine émotion, je vous annonce que j’ai soutenu mon habilitation à diriger des recherches, lundi 11 juillet 2022 à 14 heures, à l’Université de Strasbourg. Titre…
During the 24th INFER annual conference, I have the chance to assist to the presentation of a very interesting database on bilateral exports by Prof. Dr. Jennifer Pédussel…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the role of collective wage bargaining institutions on the relationship between wage growth and unemployment, that is, the wage Phillips curve. Based on…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper aims at assessing the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Thanks to various Fourier DF unit root tests, time-varying fiscal reaction functions and threshold regressions, this study examines the stationarity and the sustainability of public…
Dans cette vidéo à but pédagogique, je tente d’expliquer de manière intuitive le concept d’inférence statistique. Il s’agit d’un concept très intuitif que l’on peut appréhender sans formule…
NEW PUBLICATION: It was a really nice experience to explore the links between innovation and macroeconomics. We find that R&D intensity is stationary in the G7 countries when…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that few of my most viewed posts will help some of…
In this blog, I will show how to build a simple model of the determination of the GDP with government and trade. The idea is to find the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: According to the Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory, the efficacy of R&D is lowered by the proliferation of products. To be consistent with empirical data, the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: While it is widely recognized that the development of a sound financial system may contribute to foster economic growth, the relation between economic growth and…
Do you want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and…
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Sherlock Holmes.A…
After a first blog about the Statistical Atlas of the European Commission (The Statistical Atlas) and a second one on how to draw maps with Stata (Drawing Maps…
The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes.The Valley of Fear, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1915). In this blog,…
I wisely started with a map, and made the story fit (generally with meticulous care for distances). J. R. R. Tolkien (1954) In this blog, I will show…
One way to convince some students that it is simple to demonstrate the value of the two first moments of a discrete distribution is to use Mathematica and…
We’ve learned from experience that the truth will come out. Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were wrong or right. Nature’s phenomena will…
A good way to visualize the effects of the international monetary system during the Bretton Wood era is to plot exchange rates over a long run period for…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper was written last year with my friend Sy-Hoa Ho. We met ten years ago in the University of Paris North during the preparation of…
NEW PUBLICATION: I am very grateful to my colleagues Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Meixing Dai, Claire Mainguy, Moïse Sidiropoulos, Isabelle Terraz and Jamel Trabelsi for all their efforts and for…
It is an immense pleasure to announce that the call for papers for the International Economics special issue is now online. Please have no hesitation to submit your…
If words are not things, or maps are not the actual territory, then, obviously, the only possible link between the objective world and the linguistic world is found…
The representative-agent in macroeconomics analyzes the gas as if there is one big molecule subject to the law that governs real molecules. Kevin D. Hoover (2007). Are only…
It was very interesting to reread this special issue of Le Point published last summer. This issue displays a journalistic article on one page and an abstract of…
Amicus Plato, sed magis amica veritas. Miguel de Cervantes, Don Quichotte (1605). How did we find out that Earth is a sphere? How in the same moment a…
The numbers are going up not because we are testing more, but because the virus is being transmitted more. Jennifer Lee (2020). The case fatality rate (i.e. the…
Kurtosis tells you virtually nothing about the shape of the peak – its only unambiguous interpretation is in terms of tail extremity; i.e., either existing outliers (for the…
Two important characteristics of maps should be noticed. A map is not the territory it represents, but, if correct, it has a similar structure to the territory, which…
“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” Sherlock Holmes. The Adventure of the Copper Beeches, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1892). In my previous…
The rate of exchange between two countries is primarily determined by the quotient between the internal purchasing power against goods of the money of each country. The general…
Estimator: A statistic used to approximate a population parameter. Sometimes called a point estimator. Estimate: The observed value of the estimator. Unbiased estimator: An estimator whose expected value…
We’re supposed to be living in an era where human beings have become the dominant influence on the environment, but COVID-19 has revealed the fragility of our societies and the…
L’Histoire ne rampe pas. L’Histoire bondit. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2008). Dans ces temps troublés pour l’économie mondiale plongée dans un coma artificiel, l’union monétaire européenne est sur la…
History does not crawl. History jumps. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2008). In these dark times of ’Coronacoma’ for the World Economy, the European Monetary Union is on the brink……
La loi de la population nous est inconnue, parce qu’on ignore la nature de la fonction qui sert de mesure aux obstacles, tant préventifs que destructifs, qui s’opposent…
The demand for money is likely to depend upon the exchange rate in addition to the interest rate and the level of income; this would slightly reduce the…
This special issue of Brussels Economic Review / Cahiers Économiques de Bruxelles aims at providing some theoretical and empirical perspectives on the euro crisis from a macroeconomic viewpoint.…
On October 26, 1985, in Back to the Future Part II, Dr. Emmett Brown (Doc) and Marty Mac Fly go back to 1955 after trying to prevent Marty’s…
Downward wage and price rigidity matters only when overall inflation is very low. Joseph E. Gagnon (2018). As the US unemployment rate continues to drift down to levels…
It was a real pleasure to read this book. Set aside the provocative tone of the author and you will understand why having one’s skin in the game…
To allow national fiscal stabilizers to work, governments must be able to borrow at an affordable cost in times of economic stress. A strong fiscal framework is indispensable…
Even with more flexible economies, internal adjustment will always be slower than it would be if countries had their own exchange rate. Mario Draghi (2015). The title of…
The error contained in this sermon determined me to publish my “Agrarian Justice.” It is wrong to say God made rich and poor; He made only male and…
Entre le déclenchement de la crise de l’euro et le vote britannique sur la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’Union Européenne, nous avons assisté à une réduction massive des…
Policymakers, and institutions like the IMF that advise them, must be guided not by faith, but by evidence of what has worked. Jonathan Ostry, Prakash Loungani, Davide Furceri…
Le processus d’ajustement est obligatoire pour le débiteur et facultatif pour le créancier. Si le créancier choisit ou non de réaliser sa part de l’ajustement, il ne souffre…
The process of adjustment is compulsory for the debtor and voluntary for the creditor. If the creditor does not choose to make, or allow, his share of the…
When I want to explain the concept of Knightian uncertainty (Frank Knight, 1921) to my students. I sometimes refer to the video filmed in March 2003 of Donald…
It was a real pleasure to participate in the 9th EUROFRAME conference which took place in June 2012 at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The conference…
Cette recherche a été motivée par deux types de critique portant sur les taux de change d’équilibre. Le premier type de critique porte sur les incertitudes entourant les…
This research has been motivated by two lines of criticism about equilibrium exchange rates, the first one bears on the uncertainties surrounding the measurement of equilibrium exchange rates…
As far as I remember, I always wanted to be a researcher in social sciences. It is great pleasure for me to share with the world, my first…
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