Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the first time for a two-day workshop on “Energy Transition and Climate Change” in the city of Redondo Beach in California. This workshop is organized by the Department of Economics at the University of California Riverside.
This event is the fourth in a series of Workshops on Energy Economics and climate change, initiated by Hilde C. Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School), Yoosoon Chang (Indiana University), Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside) and Joao Issler (FGV-Getulio Vargas Foundation).
I will present the following work:
Valérie Mignon, Jamel Saadaoui, How Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices? Energy Economics, Volume 129, January 2024, 107219:
This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI) and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and rely on structural VAR and local projection methodologies. Our findings show that improved US–China relationships, as well as higher geopolitical risks, drive up the price of oil. In fact, unexpected shocks in the political relationship index are associated with optimistic expectations of economic activity, whereas unexpected shocks in the geopolitical risk index also reflect fears of supply disruption. Political tensions and geopolitical risks are thus complementary causal drivers of oil prices, the former being linked to consumer expectations and the latter to the prospects of aggregate markets;
and his little brother:
Jamel Saadaoui (10 August 2024), The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments, SSRN Working Paper 4921791:
This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that these dynamic effects are unstable over time. Indeed, these effects have been more observable since the global financial crisis, with China being increasingly perceived as a threat in the U.S. Instability is detected around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, geopolitical risks and political tensions influence oil price at different time horizons.
Comments and remarks are welcome, as always!