Category: Research Article
-
Computing the number of months to reach peak depreciation during a monetary cycle
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of…
-
Geopolitical risk and oil prices: When refining capacities are targeted
As we recall in a recent article, written with Valérie Mignon, oil production facilities may be military objectives during a war or a conflict: Mignon, V.,…
-
International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: new evidence of buffer effects in Africa (Emerging Markets Review)
NEW PUBLICATION: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in…
-
Currency fluctuations in emerging countries since the end of 2021
Last week, I saw this picture in a post written by Ziad Daoud, the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. It would be interesting to explore…
-
Two recent articles on Local Projections
Today, let me draw your attention to two recent papers published in the Journal of Econometrics that deal with the Local Projection (LP) method introduced by…
-
Leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques,…
-
Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration (Journal of International Money and Finance)
NEW PUBLICATION: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate…
-
Illustrating the consequences of modeling common factors with Stata [Updated with xtdcce2]
This post has been inspired by a fascinating discussion with Hiro Ito, Eric Clower and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak. In an old paper of mine (j.econmod.2015.02.007) written in…
-
How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices? (Energy Economics)
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship…
-
Some basic economics of AI
After a first blog presenting our paper on Artificial Intelligence and a second one presenting the Mathematica notebook that explains step-by-step the calculations. Let me draw…
-
Artificial intelligence and the skill premium – Wolfram Community
The companion notebook for our paper has been selected into the Staff Picks into the Wolfram community blog: community.wolfram.com. This notebook aims to replicate all the…
-
Some stabilizing properties of international reserves
In my first Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about some stabilizing…
-
A friend of a rival is a rival
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral…
-
Do FX reserves promote monetary autonomy in the presence of global spillovers?
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal…
-
Can we detect threshold effects in the bank credit-economic growth relationship in the ASEAN?
NEW PUBLICATION: The answer is yes. When the credit-to-GDP ratio is above 96.5%, the effect of a further development of bank credit on the economic growth…
-
How political tensions influence the oil market?
NEW PUBLICATION: It was very interesting to explore how political tensions between China and the US impact the oil market. The originality of our approach lies…
-
Is R&D intensity stationary?
NEW PUBLICATION: It was a really nice experience to explore the links between innovation and macroeconomics. We find that R&D intensity is stationary in the G7…
-
On money demand in Vietnam
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper was written last year with my friend Sy-Hoa Ho. We met ten years ago in the University of Paris North during the…
-
Towards a more resilient EU after the COVID-19 crisis
NEW PUBLICATION: I am very grateful to my colleagues Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Meixing Dai, Claire Mainguy, Moïse Sidiropoulos, Isabelle Terraz and Jamel Trabelsi for all their efforts…
-
Can we limit divergence in a monetary union?
To allow national fiscal stabilizers to work, governments must be able to borrow at an affordable cost in times of economic stress. A strong fiscal framework…
-
Devaluing (without devaluing) to prosperity
Even with more flexible economies, internal adjustment will always be slower than it would be if countries had their own exchange rate. Mario Draghi (2015). The…
-
Sur la situation des désalignements de change après le vote du Brexit
Entre le déclenchement de la crise de l’euro et le vote britannique sur la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’Union Européenne, nous avons assisté à une réduction…
-
Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution
It was a real pleasure to participate in the 9th EUROFRAME conference which took place in June 2012 at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.…
-
Dimension temporelle et taux de change d’équilibre
Cette recherche a été motivée par deux types de critique portant sur les taux de change d’équilibre. Le premier type de critique porte sur les incertitudes…
-
Temporal Dimension and Equilibrium Exchange rates
This research has been motivated by two lines of criticism about equilibrium exchange rates, the first one bears on the uncertainties surrounding the measurement of equilibrium…
-
FEER of falling
As far as I remember, I always wanted to be a researcher in social sciences. It is great pleasure for me to share with the world,…