Very honored to contribute my fourth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. The recent literature establishes that climate risk reduces the fiscal space,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries…
In this recent paper, Olea, Plagborg-Møller, Qian and Wolf “provide a formal proof of Jordà’s claim that conventional LP confidence intervals for impulse responses are surprisingly robust to…
A recent Bank of England working paper by Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel suggests using a one-step approach with appropriate controls in the LP estimations. Lloyd, Simon &…
Please watch this excellent video on The Schumpeterian Growth Model (Multi-Sector Version) by Klaus Prettner. It is a very pedagogical video and a follow-up to the One-Sector version.…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
In our new working paper, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, we find that political stability together with financial development matter for the negative…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
In this post, I will show you how to reshape ICRG data faster. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset is maintained by the PRS group. In their…
Allow me to share this excellent and pedagogical video on the first iterations of the Schumpeterian Growth model made by Klaus Prettner. The equations are explained step-by-step. On…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a more systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how…
It was a real pleasure to present my paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Toan D. L. Hyun, Sy-Hoa Ho, and Gazi S. Uddin, on the usefulness of international…
MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
This post is based on two videos posted by Vasilis Sarafidis on his YouTube channel. In the first one, he presents briefly the theory about the rank condition…
Yesterday, Stata released two videos on how to use Difference-in-Differences commands built-in within Stata. The videos are very pedagogical, so allow me to share them with you: Treatment…
The Bank for International Settlements has produced a formidable effort to construct historical series for central bank total assets. The data and the methodology are available on their…
As some of you may know, I have growing interests in the field of Political Economy. It appeared that the set of explained variables that I studied in…
Allow me to share this ADB blog written by Donghyun Park and Irfan A. Qureshi. Based on our recent joint publication in the Journal of International Money and…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
What is science? Science is above all a method aimed at discovering the truth. In a previous post of mine, I recommended a YouTube video capturing a lesson…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that…
In this blog, I will show how to use the Stata commands ‘graph combine’ and ‘foreach loop’ to produce high-quality graphs that may be included in the Data…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
It is my 200th blog on EconMacro, let me enjoy this opportunity to announce that I am now an External Consultant at the Asian Development Bank. Let me…
In Stata, you can write long commands over several lines. You have basically three choices: first, change the end-of-line delimiter to ‘;’ with the following commands : “delimit…
In Stata 18, you can easily create the “Table 1” for your research work using the new dtable command. In the following, I will show how to use…
After a first post on the conception of the scientific method by Richard Feynman, let us look at the following paper written paper by David F. Hendry: David…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary…
In a recent article published in the Journal of econometrics, we have some further insights about the bias-variance trade-off between IRF (Impulse Response Function) produced by the VAR…
I am happy and honored to announce that I am now a Research Fellow at the Economic Research Forum. Let me add that I hope that I will…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
Last Friday, I had the chance to welcome Joshua Aizenman for a research seminar at the University of Strasbourg: https://www.beta-economics.fr/. We had an interesting discussion about this provocative…
11 years after my first position as an Associate Professor (maître de conférences) in Strasbourg. I am now a Full Professor of Economics (professeur des universités) at the…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz from BBVA research introduced the locproj package: s459204. The package is very useful, and I will show you how to customize the LP impulse response…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This research investigates the intricate dynamics between the catalytic effect of projects financed by international institutions and geopolitical interests. Through the construction of a monthly…
Sometimes, you need to draw histograms using two variables, with one variable containing the frequencies. Using fictional data, I will show you, in some simple steps, how to…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
A small update of the following blog if you want to remove Turkey:
After three blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After two blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
After a first blog on how to visualize the ND-GAIN vulnerability scores, I was keen to explore the sub-categories of the vulnerability scores. Among them, I was particularly…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
Some materials for my lecture notes in Probability and Statistics are available on GitHub: https://github.com/. You will find the Mathematica notebooks and the PDF of my lectures for…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
After a series of blogs where I explained the functioning of the DBnomics package: www.jamelsaadaoui.com I will show how to directly download the Vulnerability Index built by the…
Truly honored to present our new NBER paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Donghyun Park, Gazi Salah Uddin and Irfan Qureshi, at the International Monetary Fund’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) Policy Forum:…
Very honored to contribute my third guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/.
NEW PUBLICATION: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over…
In his last post, Cullen S. Hendrix from the PIIE proposed to measure friendliness and like-mindedness using mean absolute distance with the US for two variables, the polyarchy…
I am now an Associate Editor of International Economics and Economic Policy: Springer. International Economics and Economic Policy publishes theoretical and empirical research relevant to economic policy, serving as…
In terms of global oil demand, some believe it. In future years, India may become the new leader in terms of economic growth. Some structural features hinder the…
Did you know that you can use an API to display instability scores computed from GDELT data? Below, an example for the French region (first administrative level): https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored by Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, and Gazi Salah Uddin, in the Empirical Economics research…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
Sometimes, you need to extract some countries when you are using a panel. The most simple way to proceed is to use a loop after the creation of…
NEW BOOK CHAPTER: This chapter looks at the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) at the world and regional levels, with a focus on East, South…
When you are interested in geopolitical risks, up to some point you will heard about the GDELT project: https://www.gdeltproject.org Here, the brief description on their website: A Global…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
Commerce is a cure for the most destructive prejudices…wherever we find agreeable manners, there commerce flourishes; and that wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners.…
In these uncertain times when history and geopolitics are of utmost importance for economics, let me draw your attention to this website with very nice timelines: https://www.cfr.org/timelines The…
Very honored to contribute my second guest blog post on Econbrowser, written this time, with William Ginn. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome,…
On Friday 29, I will participate in the French Japanese Webinar in Economics (FJWE) to present my paper: Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of…
As we recall in a recent article, written with Valérie Mignon, oil production facilities may be military objectives during a war or a conflict: Mignon, V., & Saadaoui,…
NEW PUBLICATION: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving the…
Elle est là ! La photo de la promo 2023-2024 du Master 1 Macroéconomie et Politiques Européennes. Un immense merci à Victor Dreyer pour l’initiative de cette photo…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
Let me draw your attention to this very useful inflation and interest tracker made by the Financial Times. It offers plenty of interactive visualizations per country about the…
Last week, I saw this picture in a post written by Ziad Daoud, the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. It would be interesting to explore if ex-ante…
Today, let me draw your attention to two recent papers published in the Journal of Econometrics that deal with the Local Projection (LP) method introduced by Òscar Jordà…
Happy to announce that I now have a Medium page: https://medium.com/@jamelsaadaoui, where I will make a selection of my best blogs on EconMacro. These blogs will stay free…
Yesterday, I went to Corvinus University to present my paper: How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?, co-authored with Valérie Mignon, in the main research…
During the 16th FIW conference, I had the chance to attend the policy panel on the “Tectonic shifts in the international economic order”. Giorgia Giovannetti gave us some…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to build databases at the NUTS 0, NUTS 1, NUTS 2 levels. I recommend you to consult my blog series…
What if I told you that you can build a panel dataset of 3 variables for almost 200 countries and around 60 years in less than four minutes?…
During the 4th Italian Workshop of Econometrics and Empirical Economics: “Climate and Energy Econometrics”, I had the chance to attend to the presentation of Giovanni Cerulli’s book on…
The levels of Geopolitical Risks are now close to those of the Cold War, as mentioned by Cullen S. Hendrix in this PIIE chart: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/2020s-mark-return-cold-war-levels-geopolitical-risk. What does it…
As mentioned in the last Stata News 39-1, the reshape command is now faster, much faster. For an ongoing project, I had to reshape daily data for sovereign…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
NEW PUBLICATION: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship…
In his last book, La Défaite de l’Occident, Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and demographer, argues that the infant morality rate is higher in the US than in…
Today, I will show how to add shaded areas for NBER recession dates with Stata. I begin by importing the data of the Sahm Rule with Stata: The…
After a series of blogs on Maps, I will show how to use GADM data to draw maps for Austria at 4 different administrative levels. I thank Derek…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that a few of my most viewed posts will help some…
Today, I will build on my previous blogs to show you how to draw a map of United Nations General Assembly Voting Data with Stata (see here for…
In this blog, I will show you how to compute descriptive statistics by country in a panel data thanks to the Stata command putexcel in a few simple…
In this blog, I will show you that it is simple to switch back and forth between panel data and time series with the Stata command reshape. I…
Usually in Statistics, time is a continuous quantitative variable that uses the interval scale when we are looking at dates (the ratio scale when we elaborate on duration,…
Let me draw your attention to this piece written by Tomasz Wieladek for The Economist: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/12/11/tomasz-wieladek-has-an-explanation-for-recent-macroeconomic-puzzles In this piece, Tomasz Wieladek argues that the pandemic recession was particular…
The most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given for regions of…
Today, I will build on my two previous blogs to show you how to use an alternative projection for the maps. Indeed, you need a projection when you…
Today, I will build on my previous blog to show you how to merge two macroeconomic series, draw maps and think about some correlations in three simple steps:…
Using maps can be a good way to visualize the spatial dispersion of the data. I made a series of blogs on drawing maps on Stata available in…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving…
This post has been inspired by a fascinating discussion with Hiro Ito, Eric Clower and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak. In an old paper of mine (j.econmod.2015.02.007) written in 2015, I…
Nowadays, we are talking a lot about uncertainty. It could be interesting to draw your attention to this article, that I mentioned in an older post: Bradley, R.,…
J’ai le plaisir de vous annoncer ma première note de blog sur le site l’AFSE concernant la détention des réserves de change. Dans laquelle, nous tentons de répondre…
Last Friday, we organized the Fifth ERMEES workshop with Amélie Barbier-Gauchard and Pierre Lesuisse, together will all the ERMEES team. It was very pleasant to see old friends…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates,…
After a first blog presenting our paper on Artificial Intelligence and a second one presenting the Mathematica notebook that explains step-by-step the calculations. Let me draw your attention…
In this blog, you will learn to use the Denton method with Stata to interpolate a series to a higher frequency. I will show you a simple example…
Nearly a decade after presenting my doctoral dissertation, it is a delight to attend my former university and present our NBER paper, co-authored by Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho,…
The companion notebook for our paper has been selected into the Staff Picks into the Wolfram community blog: community.wolfram.com. This notebook aims to replicate all the computations in…
Truly honored to present our NBER paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh and Gazi Salah Uddin, at the LÉO (University of Orléans) research seminar: www.nber.org on Tuesday…
In my first Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about some stabilizing properties of…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By…
NEW WORKING PAPER: What will likely be the effect of the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) on the skill premium? To address this…
Stata 18 est sorti en avril, j’aurai le plaisir d’animer un webinaire pour Timberlake. Ce webinaire présentera trois nouvelles commandes très prisées des utilisateurs : Nous organiserons une…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary…
Thanks to the wonderful guidance of Hashir Shoaib (hashirshoaeb), I finally manage to use GitHub pages to built a portfolio for my recent projects jamelsaadaoui.github.io/ Feel free to…
A few days ago, I assisted to wonderful presentation by Di Liu of StataCorp LLC. His explanations were crystal clear about the difference-in-difference commands introduced in Stata 18.…
I will give my first training session for Timberlake, the 26th October 2023 at 9 – 11 am BST / 10 – 12 pm CEST: www.timberlake.co.uk The short…
Today, let me draw your attention to this very interesting JEL article. It provides a superb overview of macroeconomic research during the last 40 years. As the authors,…
Today, let me draw your attention to a very interesting book: Natural Resource Economics. Analysis, Theory, and Applications by Jon M. Conrad, Cornell University, New York, Daniel Rondeau, University of Victoria,…
Today, I will show how to estimate a DSGE model with Stata in a few steps. The model consists of 8 equations and is a variant of the…
Today I will present you VAR_NR, a Stata module to estimate set identified Structural VAR. This toolbox has been provided by Abigail Kuchek, Jonah Danziger and Christoffer Koch. On EconPapers,…
It is my 100th blog on EconMacro! I tried to provide some tips to access to knowledge all along these blogs. The idea is to try to make…
After first blogs on how to launch Stata and visualize high-frequency data in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following example, you will first see that Mathematica offers a…
Very honored to contribute my first guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/
The new TSPDLIB 3.0 GAUSS library has been released by APTECH. It is the most complete free library about structural-break econometrics that you will find on the web:…
It is an immense pleasure to announce that the call for papers for the European Journal of Political Economy issue is now online. Please have no hesitation to…
Let me draw your attention to these very nice resources posted by Menzie Chinn in his International Symposium on Forecasting 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International…
Let me draw your attention to this Journal of Economic Literature’s article that surveys all the measures that are used to evaluate uncertainty in Economics and in Finance:…
After two first blogs (here and here) on how to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following file, you will see that Stata can be helpful…
You want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and associate…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program was supposed to stimulate the real economy and be able to control inflation rates. Nevertheless, primarily…
Good news! In the new version of Stata 18, we have a new command that produces local-projection impulse–response functions. You can find the complete description of the command…
During my seminars of Applied Econometric with Stata in the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Strasbourg, I always tell to my students that the…
Il y a quelques années, le doyen et la vice-doyenne m’avait confié la mission de coordonner les enseignements en Probabilités et statistiques pour les trois premières années de…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
Great news! Wolfram Research has launched a new function that could help to write a code in various languages: resources.wolframcloud.com/ This function requires that you have an account…
I have the great pleasure and honor of having 3 of my recent works included in the program of the 71st Congress of the French Economic Association (AFSE).…
Edit: It is an honor to be included on the companion website of Professor Sul: https://personal.utdallas.edu/ During this summer, I decided to explore and to understand the concept…