NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper studies the role of foreign exchange and gold reserves in mitigating the US monetary policy spillovers to exchange rates at times of geopolitical…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the dynamic effects of sentiment on international equity returns using two complementary empirical approaches. First, we estimate panel Local Projections (LPs) for…
I am delighted to announce that I will present recent research, in two weeks, during a Morning Trade DG Trésor Seminar at the French Ministry of Economy and…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Belgrade during the next week for the 21st IEA World Congress on Contrasting World Visions: Globalism v. Nationalism,…
This article is based on the France Inter discussion about El Niño featuring climatologist Christophe Cassou, supplemented by research from NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization, the European Central…
NEW WORKING PAPER: In this paper, we examine how the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) respond to climate-related shocks and whether the green…
I am pleased to announce that I will deliver a two-day online course with Timberlake on Local Projections for Time-Series and Panel Data Analysis: Methods, Applications, and Replication…
The geopolitical risk index is often used as a monthly measure of geopolitical tensions. It is tempting to convert it into an annual or fiscal-year variable by taking…
By Nathalie El-Bazzal and Jamel Saadaoui · 14 June 2026 Main point. The March 2025 arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu is best classified as a domestic political shock with…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Zurich in one month for the 8th International Conference on European Economics and Politics. This International Conference is…
One of the oldest questions in political economy is also one of the most practical: in what order do good institutions develop? Do countries first need a capable…
A common problem in applied microeconometrics arises when the dependent variable is observed at a very disaggregated level, while the main explanatory variable varies at a more aggregated…
This post builds on Jeffry Frieden’s comment on geoeconomics in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Frieden’s central argument is that geoeconomic policy should not be analyzed as if states…
I was very happy to discuss the paper of Tim Ginker and Itamar Caspi during a Bank of Israel’s research seminar. The discussions were very interesting and vivid;…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper asks why openness has been such a strong catalyst for catch-up growth in some regions or countries, while in others openness has been…
Before diving into the blog, allow me to share that it is the first time I wrote an EconMacro blog on a plane. A lot of people seems…
Over the last three months, three EconMacro posts have attracted particularly sustained attention. They are different in format: one is a methodological note on local projections and VARs,…
I am pleased to share that I am part of the Scientific Committee of the International Conference on Trade Wars, Geopolitical Fragmentation and Repercussions for Financial and Monetary…
Academic publishing is not always a mechanical process. The same paper, evaluated by the same referee with essentially the same report, can lead to different editorial outcomes. I…
Financial crises often reveal the political architecture hidden inside monetary plumbing. The Financial Times Alphaville article on swap lines is useful because it does not treat central bank…
Why France and Italy? The new research published in the Journal of International Money and Finance “What are the causal links between fiscal and external sustainability in the…
I asked ChatGPT pro 5.5 to make an overview of my publications so far. I thank all the editors for their confidence and the reviewers for their helpful…
NEW PUBLICATION: We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set for 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the first…
Local projections have become a standard tool in applied macroeconometrics. They are widely used to estimate dynamic responses to shocks, especially when researchers do not want to impose…
This post illustrates how to use matching methods in Stata to study a reserve-buffer mechanism in international macroeconomics. The application uses kmatch, teffects, and a country-year panel to compare high-…
Before diving in this blog, I recommend you to read that previous blog below: Quite frequently, we have to estimate state-dependent local projection (SLP) in applied economics. Recent…
I regularly contribute to EconMacro in the field of international macroeconomic shocks that are transmitted via geopolitics, energy markets, exchange rates, and sustainable development. The relevant Reuters story…
Interactions are everywhere in applied economics. We often want to know whether a policy buffer works differently across institutional environments: whether international reserves reduce recession risk more when…
NEW PUBLICATION: Is Geopolitical Risk (GPR) detrimental to sovereign stress in the Euro Area (EA)? We address this question by estimating the dynamic effects of GPR shocks—originating either…
My recent NBER working paper has been covered on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/aizenman-desbordes-and-saadaoui-quantifying-trade-destruction. Kinetic conflict (“military war”) and trade-context hostility (“trade war”) are both economically large and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How damaging is a “trade war” compared to a “military war” or a “war of words”? Aggregate conflict indicators cannot say, because they treat missile…
Truly honored to present my CAMA working paper on the consequences of geopolitical turning points on macroeconomic volatility during a research webinar at the Central Bank of Malta…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the structural determinants of current account balance (CAB) dynamics for a panel of 74 countries spanning 1971-2023. We characterize external adjustment behavior…
Maurice Obstfeld opens his recent PIIE note with a crisp proposition: the world does not need America’s current-account deficit to satisfy excess demand for dollars. In the narrow…
In the 6 posts of the series about the inflationary effects of geopolitical risks, I revisited the paper by Dario Caldara, Sarah Conlisk, Matteo Iacoviello, and Maddie Penn…
Before reading this blog, I recommend you to read the first 5 parts of this blog series. Available below: Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Part VI…
Before reading this blog, I recommend you to read the first 4 parts of this blog series. Available below: Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Part V…
Before reading this blog, I recommend you to read the first 3 parts of this blog series. Available below: A narrative identification check: are the inflationary effects really…
Before reading this blog, I recommend you to read the first 2 parts of this blog series. Available below: In Part I, I focused on Figure 3 of…
Before reading this blog, I recommend you to read the first part of this blog series. Available below: In Part I, I focused on Figure 3 of Caldara,…
Today, I will start a series of blog to replicate the Figures of recent research on the macroeconomic effects of geopolitical risk. In “Do geopolitical risks raise or…
When countries sign several trade agreements in quick succession, a standard event-study can become hard to interpret. A coefficient estimated 2 years after one signature may already reflect…
In this blog, I will show you how to use the eventdd Stata package with high-frequency data. This Stata package has been developed by Damian Clarke and Kathya…
The joint rise in Chinese and Russian gold reserves since the 2000s is more than a portfolio story. It also reflects a geopolitical realignment that became increasingly visible…
A common misunderstanding when first encountering the tvpreg Stata command is to think that it estimates time variation the way a rolling regression does, or the way a…
In three previous posts on the use of Geopolitical Turning Points as instruments for bilateral geopolitical relation, I presented the working paper, the underlying logic of the instrument,…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks—geopolitical turning points—i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the…
Premier passage à la télévision pour moi dans l’émission « La semaine de l’éco » de France 24, présentée par Karina Chabour, thème de l’émission « Guerre au Moyen-Orient :…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. We document that…
Truly honored to present my latest CAMA Working Paper during an IMF-CEF and EMEA research webinar on Thursday 9 April 2026. Stay tuned for more information. Geopolitical Turning…
NEW PUBLICATION: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium,…
Truly honored to present my views on the economic implications of geopolitical risks during a research webinar at the Bank Al-Maghrib on Wednesday 25 March 2026. I am extremely…
Avec Réinventer l’économie pour le XXIe siècle : les fondements d’un capitalisme humaniste, John Komlos propose bien davantage qu’un manuel critique supplémentaire contre l’orthodoxie. Publié en 2026 aux…
Yesterday, Stata published a spotlight blog on instrumental-variable local projection impulse-response functions built around the ivlpirf command. The point is important. Local projections are already widely used in…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines how geopolitical risk affects metal prices and stockpiling when demand is unevenly distributed across end uses. We develop a Theory of Use-Specific…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines the effects of sentiment shocks on economic conditions, with an emphasis on the roles of uncertainty and state dependence, using monthly U.S. data…
Truly honored to present our recent Working Paper, written with Vanessa Strauss-Khan and Jérôme Creel at the Bank for International Settlements (Office for the Americas) during a research webinar on Tuesday…
I will have the great honor to make a “hands-on” seminar for the Central Bank of Suriname on February 10, 2026 (11:00 Suriname Time) on our joint research,…
A recurring comment in referee reports is that local projections “require stationarity,” or that the researcher must “stationarize” (difference/detrend) the variables before computing impulse responses. In a time-series…
NEW PUBLICATION: Using data from around 100 countries between 1995 and 2019, we examine the impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risk. We also explore the transmission channels…
Recently, new research published in the Journal of International Economics shows that the Nickell bias affect panel local projections even when the lagged term for the dependent variable…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with David E. Bloom, Klaus Prettner, and Mario Veruete at the University Paris Nanterre during a research webinar on Thursday…
An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates how geopolitical relationships shape Chinese exports, asking whether exporters systematically favor politically aligned countries-and whether that preference holds during periods of geopolitical…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Using local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the South African Reserve Bank during a research webinar…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that a few of my most viewed posts will help some…
Local projections (LPs), following Jordà (2005), have become a standard tool for estimating impulse response functions (IRFs) in macroeconomics. Their appeal is well understood: LPs are simple to…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that a few of my most viewed research on SSRN will…
To close 2025 on EconMacro, I decided to make a ranking of my best conferences so far. The first time I presented a paper, it was in July…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye during…
Macroeconomics maintains a set of very useful “intuitions” that provide insights into very complex phenomena. Slack periods follow downturns, markets subsequently adjust after shocks, and openness leads to…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
In a previous blog, I showed how to draw local projection’s impulse response function with Driscoll-Kraay inference in Stata. This is the picture what you get: But, Alfonso…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on global Travel & Leisure (T&L) stock returns using a Multivariate Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (MQQR) approach. Focusing on…
In a future work in preparation, we will explore how geopolitical relationship shocks, such as changes in US-China, China-Japan, or China-India relations, affect provincial GDP growth in China.…
Local projections (LPs) have become a workhorse tool in applied macroeconomics since Jordà (2005). They are flexible, robust to misspecification, and easy to interpret. In panel settings, however,…
Let me draw your attention to this very useful geopolitics tracker made by the creator of the “Pizza Intelligence” concept, on which Alessia Paccagnini told me first a…
Very happy to announce that I will be a keynote speaker, for the first time, at the “5ème Journée d’Économétrie Appliquée en l’honneur de Michel Terraza,” which will…
Very happy to share that I received Excellence Award Certificate from the International Review of Economics and Finance. I thank Jonathan Benchimol for this.
Local projections have become one of the most widely used tools to study dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Their flexibility and robustness make them particularly attractive when researchers…
I am happy and honored to announce that I am now a Research Associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA). Let me add that I am…
When working with large databases, it is quite easy to lose track about the signification of your variables. That’s why it is recommended to label your variables carefully…
Very honored to contribute my eighth guest blog post on Econbrowser, written with Laurent Ferrara. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always:…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including…
NEW PUBLICATION: The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to capture…
Seated in the office of the legendary John Maynard Keynes at the University of Cambridge. It is one of the original chairs where Keynes used to sit. I…
If you are familiar with the two-way graphs with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you want to make a two-way graph more readable, the…
Truly honored to have written a joint research with Russell Smyth, Joaquin Vespignani, Yitian Wang titled Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and…
I just finished reading the latest blog of John H. Cochrane and I learned a lot of new things, you should read it too: https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-does-not-imply-variation Basically, Cochrane is…
After a map for Asia, the present example focuses on the joint distribution of economic growth and state capacity over the period 1960 to 2024. The result provides…
The present example focuses on the joint distribution of economic growth and state capacity over the period 1960 to 2024. The dataset contains country-level averages for the East…
Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to geoboundary, the Stata package provided by Asjad Naqvi. Drawing maps…
Climate watchers and oil traders are again looking at the same charts. In early autumn 2025, the United States Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory. Sea…
How do the shares of the USD reserves in total reserves since 2012? The map reveals a divergent adjustment in reserve currency composition since 2012. The US dollar’s…
The Chiṭu-Eichengreen-Mehl Global Currencies Database (CEMGCD) has been released and you can explore fascinating multiple databases provided in the following website: https://globalcurrenciesdatabase.com/publications-datasets For people interested in panel time…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the widespread deployment of automation technologies such as industrial robots and artificial intelligence (AI) affect long-run economic performance? To address this question, we…
Truly honored to have written a joint research with Joshua Aizenman titled Openness and Comparative Advantages: Asian Successes and Failures. The paper will be presented by Joshua Aizenman…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to…
Over the past few years, geopolitical tensions have become one of the main macroeconomic risks facing the global economy. To track these developments more systematically, I recently produced…
Truly honored to present our research titled Not All Climate Shocks Are Alike: How ENSO Impacts Oil Prices, written with Mauro Gallegati, William Ginn, Solomos Solomou, and Kun…
In previous research of mine, I proposed a simple and efficient method to identify what I called the geopolitical turning points — unexpected change in bilateral geopolitical relationships.…
Dummy variables are among the simplest yet most powerful tools in econometrics. They allow us to represent qualitative differences such as crisis versus non-crisis periods, treated versus untreated…
For an ongoing project with Joshua Aizenman for the ADBI, we have to explore the linkages between the State Capacity (available here) and the Institutional Score (available here).…
After this new Stata blog was released, I wanted to experiment a little with two of my latest blogs on Stata. If you have already installed Python on…
If you are familiar with the heatmaps with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you want to make the legend, the title is the name…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT database discussing how to start with these big data (https://www.jamelsaadaoui.com/tag/gdelt-data/), I propose to update the blog covering the bilateral relationship…
If you are familiar with the impulse response function (IRF) analysis with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you plot an IRF, you will have…
Truly honored to present our research on Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals, written…
NEW PUBLICATION: The intensification of global oil market linkages has elevated the relevance of geopolitical risk (GPR) as a determinant of trade patterns and energy security exposure. This…
Very honored to contribute my seventh guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks on U.S. oil futures and goods market prices from 1983:03 to 2024:10 via the…
Truly honored to present our research on Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals, written…
The chart below tracks a 28‑day weighted moving average of political‑tension sentiment for France, normalized by France’s own history. It splits coverage by media origin. On Sep 21,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper shows that geopolitical risk is an important predictor of tail risks in the investment growth distribution. Using the growth-at-risk framework, we document that…
This is my first-ever blog on Machine Learning! A major novelty in the latest version of Stata, Stata 19, is the implementation of Machine Learning. Today, I will…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines how U.S. monetary policy shocks influence asset price bubbles under different inflation regimes. Using data from 1998-2023, we show that the transmission…
Truly honored to present our research on Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions, written with Fabio Anobile, Francesco Frangiamore, and Marco Maria Matarrese at the Bank of England during a financial…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT data, let me show you how to use the GDELT API to follow and watch the French Debt situation in…
Israel’s economy is now 7% below its pre-war trend. Unlike the COVID-19 recession, this time there is no quick rebound. The plucking model fails under conflict, where instability…
In this blog, I update a previous blog of mine using an orthogonalized version of the religious tension variable coming from the international country risk guide (ICRG). Orthogonalization…
NEW PUBLICATION: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries have…
During the 27th INFER conference, I had the chance to present a recent paper on the impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risks. In this paper, we show…
If you are a macroeconomist interested in impulse response function analysis, you need to watch this presentation by Christian Wolf during the 40th Annual NBER Conference on Macroeconomics,…
Today, I will show you how to use the package of Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, xtnptimevar, that estimates non-parametric varying coefficients in panel data models with fixed effects. We…
Ces derniers temps, on entend beaucoup de choses sur la dette publique française… Alors, voici ma petite contribution au bruit ambiant. Voici comment on peut présenter les choses…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the National Bank of Slovakia during a research seminar…
Today, I propose an update of the following blog. So I recommend reading it before dive in this blog. Adding shaded areas is very simple with EViews, but…
In this blog, we will see how to use Stata and Python to download daily gold prices in USD. I will rely on a series of blogs showing…
During the 24th INFER annual conference, I have the chance to attend the presentation of a very interesting database on bilateral exports by Prof. Dr. Jennifer Pédussel Wu.…
I successfully defended my PhD thesis some almost 11 years ago, and I recently got the promotion to full professor. Therefore, it is a good time to ask…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
I will have the great honor to make a “hands-on” seminar for the VIMM: Virtual Israel Macro Meeting on Local Projections on September 9, 2025 (15:00 Israel Time):…
Introduction Is Marxism a scientific economic theory, an ideology, or a historical paradigm? Few frameworks have shaped economic thought and political action as deeply as Marxism. Yet, the…
Truly honored to present some recent research at DeFiPP is a research institute from the University of Namur (Belgium) during a research seminar on November 18, 2025 (4:00…
Today, we will see how to translate the first part of the code the threshold VAR model in Balke (2000) using ChatGPT5. It took me a few hours and…
Today, we will see how to draw maps with Stata for the largest cities in the world. I used geoplot with multiple frames and an orthographic projection. I…
During the past five years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences, and I learned…
Today, I update the most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on three previous blogs showing how to use Using DBnomics with Stata…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on two previous blogs showing how to use Using DBnomics with Stata…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on a previous blog showing how to use DBnomics with Stata. This…
In this blog, I will leverage my yesterday’s blog to analyze the daily exchange rate dynamics between the US 2024 Presidential Election and the Tariff Deadline. I am…
In this blog, I will show you how to download and plot daily bilateral exchange rates. The data comes from the BIS, and the code used in this blog…
In this blog, I will show you how to download and plot high-frequency data (HFD) for the EURUSD currency pair. The data comes from Polygon.io (you need to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the Bank of Latvia during a research seminar on…
In my third Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about how political stability and trade restrictions…
For an ongoing project about the drivers of recessions for a large cross-section of countries observed between 1990 and 2022, I have to compute the number of quarters…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
Eric Voeten has posted new data on the geopolitical alignment on his repository on the Harvard Dataverse: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ and scroll down. The description of the data: This dataset…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Very honored to contribute my sixth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
Recently, I had a very bad experience with a referee report. Basically, he/she told me that our paper has too many tables and that the number of tables…
In this blog, I will show you how to plot a 3D plot based on a two-way fixed effect panel model with an interaction term. The data and…
I reach the threshold of 25 percent of my papers (12 out of 38 articles since 2010) with an available replication archive on my GitHub. I hope to…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Copper and lithium are essential to the global energy transition, each playing distinct roles in enabling low-carbon technologies. However, their supply chains are highly vulnerable…
Delighted to share that I have accessed for the first time the Top 5% of RePEc’s author ranking over the last 10 years of publications. Since I started…
For an ongoing project for the European Commission, I have to run some panel data regressions. Not so uncommon, isn’t it? After the panel regressions and if you…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We identify the negative influence of nationalist sentiment on economic growth. Our cross-country evidence confirms the growth-depressing effect of nationalism, projecting that economic growth has…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…
Economics is a social science. That might surprise you if you are an economist reading those lines. After all, economists use formalization (mathematics and statistics) like in physics,…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, at the Birkbeck College during a research seminar on Thursday 10 July 2025 (London 2:00 PM). I am…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Montpellier in two weeks for the 30th IDPC. This International Conference is organized by the Université de Montpellier. The…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, at the Bank of Korea during a research seminar on Friday 18 July 2025 (Seoul 10:30 AM). I…
The replication package of the Debt-at-Risk paper from the IMF is available here: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/05/05/Debt-at-Risk-566595 It has been released by Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei R Lam,…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on two concurrent events: the Red Sea Crisis,…
NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…
As you may know, I am a huge fan of Stata (I have to tell the real story behind that choice one day…) and like to share knowledge…
I am the new editor of RePEc’s NEP International Finance: https://nep.repec.org/nep-ifn.html. I thank Marco Novarese for the opportunity.
During the 4th CINSC / 2025 conference in Edinburgh, I presented my joint research written with Joshua Aizenman: Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Edinburgh at the beginning of the next week for the 4th CINSC/2025 INFINITI. This International Conference is organized by the…
In this new version of this paper, written with Yifei Cai, we find evidence of time-varying scapegoating: The shocks in US Partisan Conflict provoke a decrease of the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates the impact of consumer confidence shocks on economic conditions. We estimate consumer confidence innovations using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and…
Allow me to share a very nice interactive map of World Bank’s top 10 biggest debtors: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/686944bf-3818-5791-9f76-b97856fb8607
My previous blog has been mentioned on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews. Perhaps, the median of the current account balance as percentage of GDP may enter into the…
In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also…
After my two first blogs on EViews programming, we are going to use Markov-Switching AR models to estimate current account persistence with quarterly data. AR stands for autoregressive.…
In a previous blog, I explain how to use the JDemetra+ Seasonal Adjustment with EViews: Today, we are going to use an updated dataset for the quarterly current…
Allow me to share my first blog ever blog in EViews, I will show you how to use the JDemetra+ seasonal adjustment with EViews for a panel of…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Paris in three weeks for the 46th IAEE International Conference. This International Conference is organized by the International…
My Central Bank tour continues, the next stop is the Bank of Korea! After the Bank of Thailand in May 2024, the Banque de France in October 2025,…
I am delighted to announce that I will travel to Italy for the 2025 IAAE Italy International Association for Applied Econometrics. This International Conference is organized by the…
Allow me to share a small update about work, I found an easy way to plot the impulse response function using the beta release of RATS 11, and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast…
Delighted to announce that I will participate in the Conference on Political Capitalism this week. This conference is organized by Corvinus University of Budapest and University of Sorbonne…
For an ongoing project on political polarization with William Ginn, I have to make a graph to explain how evolve political polarization around the world. Fortunately, I found…
Today, let me echo a post written by Nicholas Wall, Head of Global FX Strategy, Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities at J.P. Morgan. We have a lot of repricing…
In our recent update working paper, Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Fiscal Risk: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi…
Today, allow me to share with you this wonderful blog by Eric Clower on how to estimate a SVAR with GAUSS: https://www.aptech.com/blog/estimating-svar-models-with-gauss/ You might also be interested in…
Allow me to share this very interesting graph from the latest IEA’s Energy Mix newsletters, based on current projections, the copper market will suffer from a 30% supply…
Delighted to announce that I will participate in the 2025 French Stata Conference in two weeks. This conference is organized by the Aix-Marseille Université School of Economics. The…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study aims to predict currency, banking, and debt crises using a dataset of 184 crisis events and 2896 non-crisis cases from 79 countries (1970-2017).…
Today, let me update a previous blog of mine to show you how to retrieve the series for the impulses response functions, the forecast error variance decompositions, and…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025 (Paris 9:30…
I am still exploring how to draw a Voronoi treemap. Besides, I found a very handy way to plot treemaps with subgroups using a Jupyter notebook. By using…
For an ongoing project on economic recoveries with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, I have to make a graph to explain how we…
We are delighted to earn the Scottish Journal of Political Economy Prize for the Best Paper published in 2024 for our joint research with Yifei Cai and Yanrui…
NEW PUBLICATION: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant…
In a previous blog, I have shown how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. This time, I will use the EM-DAT database…
Allow me to share this piece by The Economist about Tin, a critical mineral that is enjoying a boom: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/03/tin-an-overlooked-critical-metal-is-enjoying-a-boom They also underline that Tin has a small…
After a first blog on the Global Macro Database, let me update the code to download the whole database: The file for replicating this blog is available on…
In a recent PIIE blog post, Joseph Gagnon investigate whether fiscal and exchange rate policy can reduce the trade deficit. He also looks at the impact of tariffs…
In a previous post, we asked whether France did turn porcine in the context of a grim fiscal outlook: The results of the democracy index of The Economist…
Allow me to share with this very nice blog by Felipe Camargo: https://fcamargo.substack.com/p/applied-linear-algebra-in-economics-0a7 He gives a very nice example on how to identify a shock in VAR model…
Allow me to share this very nice visual guide to critical materials and rare earths made by The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths They did a fantastic job and provide the…
Allow me to share the following piece, written by Jared Rubin, about the complex links between religion, development, and growth: https://www.broadstreet.blog/p/religion-and-development When I finished my PhD in 2012,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper considers 18 OPEC countries that were low-income countries when oil was found. Oil has given the countries a special path to high income.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I explore the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict and global oil prices over the last 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections, I find…
I am delighted to announce that I have been ranked 1st in the visiting program of the University of Macerata. Besides, I am extremely grateful to my colleague…
NEW PUBLICATION: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies. This…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT data, let show how to use the GDELT API to follow and watch uncertainty in real time. On EconBrowser, Menzie…
Today, let met show you how to use VBA to improve the functioning of OUTREG2 created by Roy Wada, a very nice package to produce estimate tables after…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025, during my…
China will move increasingly toward political freedom if it continues its successful movement for economic freedom. — Milton Friedman in 2003. Milton Friedman was a giant of economics,…
In a recent NBER WP, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates around the 2024 US presidential election. In a previous post, I present this…
As you may know, I am a huge fan of Christopher Nolan. In one of his first movies, Memento, the main character makes a philosophical mistake that could…
In this post, I will clarify the interpretation of triple interaction term in Stata. I will leverage a previous blog that clarifies the use of lincom, nlcom, and…
In this post, I will show how to use some postestimation tools in Stata to test linear combination of coefficients with interactions terms between two continuous variables. I…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
Our work has been mentioned in the blog of the International Federation of Robotics. For decades, technology has reshaped job markets throughout the world, often strengthening the relative…
In this blog, I illustrate the LP-DiD estimator by Dube, Girardi, and Jorda (2023). I will leverage my previous blogs on Heterogeneous Difference-in-Differences with Stata: This new estimator…
I found this very nice interactive page on the EIA website. You can produce very nice visualizations and Maps. The numbers are for 2023 and in quadrillions (10^15)…
Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the second time for the 32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. This…
Really happy to announce that our paper, written with Hugo Oriola, “How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?” has been accepted for presentation…
The Brent-WTI spread has known important evolutions after 2010. While it is well known by practitioners, market participants and academics, it may be useful to recall this point.…
NEW PUBLICATION: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant and…
Allow me to share this podcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond where Marina Azzimonti discusses the mechanisms that could lead to an institutional risk premium. The…
A new database is available that compiles 46 variables for 243 countries from 110 sources. Overall, that’s a very nice public good. A ton of thanks to the…
In a previous post, I covered the fact that the Biden administration wanted to “friend-shore” the US trade and work with “friendly” and “like-minded” countries. The new Trump…
After a series of blogs using RATS, allow me to introduce the estimation of Markov-switching models and unit root tests using RATS. We are going to use the…
J’ai le plaisir de vous annoncer ma seconde note de blog sur le site l’AFSE concernant l’impact des risques climatiques sur l’espace budgétaire. Dans laquelle, nous tentons de…
“Data! Data! Data! He cried impatiently. I can’t make bricks without clay.”The Adventure of the Copper Beeches – a Sherlock Holmes Short Story Arthur Conan Doyle Last week,…
After two blogs on SVAR with RATS and on SVAR with sign restrictions with Stata, allow me to introduce the estimation of SVAR with sign restrictions using RATS…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of political polarization on output growth, capital formation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 139 economies via a panel Local…
After Yesterday’s post on how to get access to daily data for exchange rate from the BIS using Python. Here, I add a Stata code snippet to investigate…
The Bank for International Settlements provides access to daily exchange rates. It may be interesting to plot the evolution of exchange rates since the Inauguration Day of the…
In the Stata New 40-1, it is easier to have access to template do-files from the menu. In this blog, I will show how to use a program…
Tomorrow, I will present a recent research written with Joshua Aizenman at the 4th IEAP Meeting: Investor Emotions & Asset Pricing in Lille at the IAE Lille. The…
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
NEW PUBLICATION: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries observed…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
The US has announced the toughest sanctions yet on Russian tankers. As stated by Reuters: “Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and…
In a few days, Alfonso Ugarte from BBVA will release an updated version of his package LOCPROJ. In this new version, the LPGRAPH command has been greatly improved…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In a previous blog, I covered the estimation of state-dependent local projection using LOCPROJ. The impact of random shocks of change in vulnerability affects positively the sovereign bond…
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