Geopolitics affects oil prices through expectations about both demand and supply. Our paper shows that better US–China political relations and higher China-related geopolitical risk can both raise oil…
We are pleased to announce the final program for our workshop, “Geopolitical Alignment, Tensions, and the Global Economy: Measurement and Evidence,” which will take place at Université Paris…
By Nathalie El-Bazzal and Jamel Saadaoui · 14 June 2026 Main point. The March 2025 arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu is best classified as a domestic political shock with…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Zurich in one month for the 8th International Conference on European Economics and Politics. This International Conference is…
A common problem in applied microeconometrics arises when the dependent variable is observed at a very disaggregated level, while the main explanatory variable varies at a more aggregated…
This post builds on Jeffry Frieden’s comment on geoeconomics in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Frieden’s central argument is that geoeconomic policy should not be analyzed as if states…
Financial crises often reveal the political architecture hidden inside monetary plumbing. The Financial Times Alphaville article on swap lines is useful because it does not treat central bank…
The joint rise in Chinese and Russian gold reserves since the 2000s is more than a portfolio story. It also reflects a geopolitical realignment that became increasingly visible…
Macroeconomics maintains a set of very useful “intuitions” that provide insights into very complex phenomena. Slack periods follow downturns, markets subsequently adjust after shocks, and openness leads to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to capture…
Truly honored to have written a joint research with Russell Smyth, Joaquin Vespignani, Yitian Wang titled Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to…
Today, I repost a blog written by Richard Baldwin on LinkedIn. The post is outstanding and gives multiple very interesting insights about current development on the economic consequences…
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