Institutional Development Precedes Financial Development
During the 4th CINSC / 2025 conference in Edinburgh, I presented my joint research written with Joshua Aizenman: Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange…
During the 4th CINSC / 2025 conference in Edinburgh, I presented my joint research written with Joshua Aizenman: Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange…
Today, let me echo a post written by Nicholas Wall, Head of Global FX Strategy, Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities at J.P. Morgan. We have a lot of repricing…
Today, allow me to share with you this wonderful blog by Eric Clower on how to estimate a SVAR with GAUSS: https://www.aptech.com/blog/estimating-svar-models-with-gauss/ You might also be interested in…
Allow me to share this very interesting graph from the latest IEA’s Energy Mix newsletters, based on current projections, the copper market will suffer from a 30% supply…
Today, let me update a previous blog of mine to show you how to retrieve the series for the impulses response functions, the forecast error variance decompositions, and…
Allow me to share this piece by The Economist about Tin, a critical mineral that is enjoying a boom: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/03/tin-an-overlooked-critical-metal-is-enjoying-a-boom They also underline that Tin has a small…
Allow me to share this very nice visual guide to critical materials and rare earths made by The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths They did a fantastic job and provide the…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
I found this very nice interactive page on the EIA website. You can produce very nice visualizations and Maps. The numbers are for 2023 and in quadrillions (10^15)…
Allow me to share this podcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond where Marina Azzimonti discusses the mechanisms that could lead to an institutional risk premium. The…
In a previous post, I covered the fact that the Biden administration wanted to “friend-shore” the US trade and work with “friendly” and “like-minded” countries. The new Trump…
After a series of blogs using RATS, allow me to introduce the estimation of Markov-switching models and unit root tests using RATS. We are going to use the…
J’ai le plaisir de vous annoncer ma seconde note de blog sur le site l’AFSE concernant l’impact des risques climatiques sur l’espace budgétaire. Dans laquelle, nous tentons de…
After two blogs on SVAR with RATS and on SVAR with sign restrictions with Stata, allow me to introduce the estimation of SVAR with sign restrictions using RATS…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
After Yesterday’s post on how to get access to daily data for exchange rate from the BIS using Python. Here, I add a Stata code snippet to investigate…
The Bank for International Settlements provides access to daily exchange rates. It may be interesting to plot the evolution of exchange rates since the Inauguration Day of the…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
Temperature changes may not be a good indicator or instrument for climate change or vulnerability to climate change. This nice visualization pushes me to think that the annual…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to access a subcomponent of ND GAIN scores. I recommend you to consult my blog series on DBnomics before delving…
The “Wandel durch handel” era is now finished. Basically, the WdH (abbreviation of Wandel durch handel) doctrine means change through trade was the backbone of German foreign policy…
Allow me to share my second ADB blog written by John Beirne, Donghyun Park and Gazi Salah Uddin. Based on our recent joint ADB Economics working paper: Climate…
Very honored to contribute my fifth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
Last week, I noticed the publication of a new research in Energy Economics by Hakan Yilmazkuday: Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices. Energy…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
Our recent publication, written with Joshua Aizenman, Donghyun Park, Gazi Salah Uddin and Irfan Qureshi, is covered in the blog Ideas for India: As the US dollar and…
Very honored to contribute my fourth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. The recent literature establishes that climate risk reduces the fiscal space,…
Please watch this excellent video on The Schumpeterian Growth Model (Multi-Sector Version) by Klaus Prettner. It is a very pedagogical video and a follow-up to the One-Sector version.…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
In this post, I will show you how to reshape ICRG data faster. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset is maintained by the PRS group. In their…
Allow me to share this excellent and pedagogical video on the first iterations of the Schumpeterian Growth model made by Klaus Prettner. The equations are explained step-by-step. On…
This post is based on two videos posted by Vasilis Sarafidis on his YouTube channel. In the first one, he presents briefly the theory about the rank condition…
Yesterday, Stata released two videos on how to use Difference-in-Differences commands built-in within Stata. The videos are very pedagogical, so allow me to share them with you: Treatment…
The Bank for International Settlements has produced a formidable effort to construct historical series for central bank total assets. The data and the methodology are available on their…
Allow me to share this ADB blog written by Donghyun Park and Irfan A. Qureshi. Based on our recent joint publication in the Journal of International Money and…
In this blog, I will show how to use the Stata commands ‘graph combine’ and ‘foreach loop’ to produce high-quality graphs that may be included in the Data…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz from BBVA research introduced the locproj package: s459204. The package is very useful, and I will show you how to customize the LP impulse response…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
After a first blog on how to visualize the ND-GAIN vulnerability scores, I was keen to explore the sub-categories of the vulnerability scores. Among them, I was particularly…
Some materials for my lecture notes in Probability and Statistics are available on GitHub: https://github.com/. You will find the Mathematica notebooks and the PDF of my lectures for…
Very honored to contribute my third guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/.
In his last post, Cullen S. Hendrix from the PIIE proposed to measure friendliness and like-mindedness using mean absolute distance with the US for two variables, the polyarchy…
Sometimes, you need to extract some countries when you are using a panel. The most simple way to proceed is to use a loop after the creation of…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
Happy to announce that I now have a Medium page: https://medium.com/@jamelsaadaoui, where I will make a selection of my best blogs on EconMacro. These blogs will stay free…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to build databases at the NUTS 0, NUTS 1, NUTS 2 levels. I recommend you to consult my blog series…
What if I told you that you can build a panel dataset of 3 variables for almost 200 countries and around 60 years in less than four minutes?…
As mentioned in the last Stata News 39-1, the reshape command is now faster, much faster. For an ongoing project, I had to reshape daily data for sovereign…
In his last book, La Défaite de l’Occident, Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and demographer, argues that the infant morality rate is higher in the US than in…
Today, I will show how to add shaded areas for NBER recession dates with Stata. I begin by importing the data of the Sahm Rule with Stata: The…
In this blog, I will show you how to compute descriptive statistics by country in a panel data thanks to the Stata command putexcel in a few simple…
In this blog, I will show you that it is simple to switch back and forth between panel data and time series with the Stata command reshape. I…
Usually in Statistics, time is a continuous quantitative variable that uses the interval scale when we are looking at dates (the ratio scale when we elaborate on duration,…
Let me draw your attention to this piece written by Tomasz Wieladek for The Economist: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/12/11/tomasz-wieladek-has-an-explanation-for-recent-macroeconomic-puzzles In this piece, Tomasz Wieladek argues that the pandemic recession was particular…
This post has been inspired by a fascinating discussion with Hiro Ito, Eric Clower and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak. In an old paper of mine (j.econmod.2015.02.007) written in 2015, I…
J’ai le plaisir de vous annoncer ma première note de blog sur le site l’AFSE concernant la détention des réserves de change. Dans laquelle, nous tentons de répondre…
After a first blog presenting our paper on Artificial Intelligence and a second one presenting the Mathematica notebook that explains step-by-step the calculations. Let me draw your attention…
In this blog, you will learn to use the Denton method with Stata to interpolate a series to a higher frequency. I will show you a simple example…
The companion notebook for our paper has been selected into the Staff Picks into the Wolfram community blog: community.wolfram.com. This notebook aims to replicate all the computations in…
A few days ago, I assisted to wonderful presentation by Di Liu of StataCorp LLC. His explanations were crystal clear about the difference-in-difference commands introduced in Stata 18.…
I will give my first training session for Timberlake, the 26th October 2023 at 9 – 11 am BST / 10 – 12 pm CEST: www.timberlake.co.uk The short…
Today, let me draw your attention to a very interesting book: Natural Resource Economics. Analysis, Theory, and Applications by Jon M. Conrad, Cornell University, New York, Daniel Rondeau, University of Victoria,…
Today, I will show how to estimate a DSGE model with Stata in a few steps. The model consists of 8 equations and is a variant of the…
Today I will present you VAR_NR, a Stata module to estimate set identified Structural VAR. This toolbox has been provided by Abigail Kuchek, Jonah Danziger and Christoffer Koch. On EconPapers,…
It is my 100th blog on EconMacro! I tried to provide some tips to access to knowledge all along these blogs. The idea is to try to make…
After first blogs on how to launch Stata and visualize high-frequency data in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following example, you will first see that Mathematica offers a…
After two first blogs (here and here) on how to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following file, you will see that Stata can be helpful…
You want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and associate…
Good news! In the new version of Stata 18, we have a new command that produces local-projection impulse–response functions. You can find the complete description of the command…
During my seminars of Applied Econometric with Stata in the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Strasbourg, I always tell to my students that the…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
The moment generating function can be quite obscure for students. We have a definition here. Quite obscure, isn’t it! In this blog, I will show a simple example…
In this blog, I will show how to build a model of the fragility of an incomplete monetary union. The idea is to find the optimal inflation rule…
In my previous post, we saw that we can derive Cobb-Douglas production function from CES production function when the elasticity of substitution is equal to zero. In this…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize CES production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus Prettner…
In the Appendix A of this book: Statistics: Principles and Methods written by Giuseppe Cicchitelli, Pierpaolo D’Urso and Marco Minozzo published by Pearson in 2021, I found the…
It is a great pleasure and an honor to announce that I wrote my first blog for APTECH with Eric Clower. In this blog, we will look more…
The positional average known as the skewness allows you to assess the symmetry of a distribution. When the skewness is to zero, then the distribution is symmetric. You…
The Big-O notation may seem quite obscure when you see it for the first time. A good way to intuitively understand this notation is to consider the case…
Let me draw your attention to this very pedagogical GAUSS blog on the Kalman filter. It links very well the theory and the code. Please find below the…
In this blog, we will see how to merge two datasets with different county code in a few simple steps. In my previous blog, I have shown how…
In this blog, I will show you in a few simple steps how to use the database aggregator DBnomics to retrieve some data with Stata. In a previous…
In this blog, I will show how to build a simple model of the determination of the GDP with government and trade. The idea is to find the…
Do you want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and…
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Sherlock Holmes.A…
The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes.The Valley of Fear, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1915). In this blog,…
One way to convince some students that it is simple to demonstrate the value of the two first moments of a discrete distribution is to use Mathematica and…
A good way to visualize the effects of the international monetary system during the Bretton Wood era is to plot exchange rates over a long run period for…
The rate of exchange between two countries is primarily determined by the quotient between the internal purchasing power against goods of the money of each country. The general…
Estimator: A statistic used to approximate a population parameter. Sometimes called a point estimator. Estimate: The observed value of the estimator. Unbiased estimator: An estimator whose expected value…
La loi de la population nous est inconnue, parce qu’on ignore la nature de la fonction qui sert de mesure aux obstacles, tant préventifs que destructifs, qui s’opposent…
Downward wage and price rigidity matters only when overall inflation is very low. Joseph E. Gagnon (2018). As the US unemployment rate continues to drift down to levels…
Le processus d’ajustement est obligatoire pour le débiteur et facultatif pour le créancier. Si le créancier choisit ou non de réaliser sa part de l’ajustement, il ne souffre…
The process of adjustment is compulsory for the debtor and voluntary for the creditor. If the creditor does not choose to make, or allow, his share of the…
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