Category: Working Paper

Statistical Difference between Regimes in State-Dependent Local Projections using LOCPROJ

In a previous blog, I covered the estimation of state-dependent local projection using LOCPROJ. The impact of random shocks of change in vulnerability affects positively the sovereign bond…

Nonlinearities in the Inflation-Growth Relationship and the Role of Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Provinces

NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates nonlinearities in the inflation-growth-uncertainty relationship in Chinese provinces over the period 1992 to 2017 using nonlinear models and dynamic panel threshold models.…

Exchange Rate Reaction to International Organization Loans and Geopolitical Preferences

NEW WORKING PAPER: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries…

High-Frequency Behavior of Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election

In our last research, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates after the 2024 US Presidential election. Our identification strategy for the causality relies on…

Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?

Allow me to share that I published my second working paper for the Asian Development Bank: Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial…

Do Supply Chain Disruptions Matter for Global Economic Conditions?

NEW WORKING PAPER: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies.…

Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Religious Tensions Matter?

In our new working paper, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, we find that political stability together with financial development matter for the negative…

Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks in Unstable Environments

MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…

Leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg

Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…

Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration

NEW WORKING PAPER: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the…

The Political Relation and Trade – The Case of US, China and Australia

NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade.…