NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that these dynamic effects are unstable over time. Indeed, these effects have been more observable since the global financial crisis, with China being increasingly perceived as a threat in the U.S. Instability is detected around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, geopolitical risks and political tensions influence oil price at different time horizons.
You are welcome to download, share, or comment on the following working paper:
- Jamel Saadaoui (10 August 2024), The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments. SSRN Working Paper 4921791.
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[…] The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments […]
[…] The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments […]