Adding Forward Shocks to solve misspecification in Local Projections with LOCPROJ
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
In a few days, Alfonso Ugarte from BBVA will release an updated version of his package LOCPROJ. In this new version, the LPGRAPH command has been greatly improved…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In a previous blog, I covered the estimation of state-dependent local projection using LOCPROJ. The impact of random shocks of change in vulnerability affects positively the sovereign bond…
In this blog, I will show how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. The dataset comes from a paper of mine on…
In this recent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, Atsushi Inoue, Òscar Jordà and Guido M. Kuersteiner offer a survey of the best practice about recent…
NEW PUBLICATION: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to access a subcomponent of ND GAIN scores. I recommend you to consult my blog series on DBnomics before delving…
In the last version of my working paper on the impact of climate risk on fiscal space, we use Joyplots to visualize the distribution of the ND-GAINS vulnerability…
A few days ago, I read the Country Risk Annual Report made by BBVA research and Alfonso Ugarte and David Sarasa Flores, in particular. On the slide 26,…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a linear…
Allow me to share my second ADB blog written by John Beirne, Donghyun Park and Gazi Salah Uddin. Based on our recent joint ADB Economics working paper: Climate…
Let me show you how to add a third dimension on a bivariate maps in this second update of my blog on drawing bivariate maps for the Chinese…
Last week, I noticed the publication of a new research in Energy Economics by Hakan Yilmazkuday: Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices. Energy…
Allow me to share that I published my second working paper for the Asian Development Bank: Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how financial…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
In this post, I will show you how to reshape ICRG data faster. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset is maintained by the PRS group. In their…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
The Bank for International Settlements has produced a formidable effort to construct historical series for central bank total assets. The data and the methodology are available on their…
As some of you may know, I have growing interests in the field of Political Economy. It appeared that the set of explained variables that I studied in…
Allow me to share this ADB blog written by Donghyun Park and Irfan A. Qureshi. Based on our recent joint publication in the Journal of International Money and…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
In this blog, I will show how to use the Stata commands ‘graph combine’ and ‘foreach loop’ to produce high-quality graphs that may be included in the Data…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
In Stata, you can write long commands over several lines. You have basically three choices: first, change the end-of-line delimiter to ‘;’ with the following commands : “delimit…
In Stata 18, you can easily create the “Table 1” for your research work using the new dtable command. In the following, I will show how to use…
In a recent article published in the Journal of econometrics, we have some further insights about the bias-variance trade-off between IRF (Impulse Response Function) produced by the VAR…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz from BBVA research introduced the locproj package: s459204. The package is very useful, and I will show you how to customize the LP impulse response…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
Sometimes, you need to draw histograms using two variables, with one variable containing the frequencies. Using fictional data, I will show you, in some simple steps, how to…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
A small update of the following blog if you want to remove Turkey:
After three blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After two blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
Some materials for my lecture notes in Probability and Statistics are available on GitHub: https://github.com/. You will find the Mathematica notebooks and the PDF of my lectures for…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
After a series of blogs where I explained the functioning of the DBnomics package: www.jamelsaadaoui.com I will show how to directly download the Vulnerability Index built by the…
NEW PUBLICATION: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over…
Did you know that you can use an API to display instability scores computed from GDELT data? Below, an example for the French region (first administrative level): https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
Sometimes, you need to extract some countries when you are using a panel. The most simple way to proceed is to use a loop after the creation of…
When you are interested in geopolitical risks, up to some point you will heard about the GDELT project: https://www.gdeltproject.org Here, the brief description on their website: A Global…
NEW PUBLICATION: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving the…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
Happy to announce that I now have a Medium page: https://medium.com/@jamelsaadaoui, where I will make a selection of my best blogs on EconMacro. These blogs will stay free…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to build databases at the NUTS 0, NUTS 1, NUTS 2 levels. I recommend you to consult my blog series…
What if I told you that you can build a panel dataset of 3 variables for almost 200 countries and around 60 years in less than four minutes?…
During the 4th Italian Workshop of Econometrics and Empirical Economics: “Climate and Energy Econometrics”, I had the chance to attend to the presentation of Giovanni Cerulli’s book on…
As mentioned in the last Stata News 39-1, the reshape command is now faster, much faster. For an ongoing project, I had to reshape daily data for sovereign…
NEW PUBLICATION: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship…
In his last book, La Défaite de l’Occident, Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and demographer, argues that the infant morality rate is higher in the US than in…
Today, I will show how to add shaded areas for NBER recession dates with Stata. I begin by importing the data of the Sahm Rule with Stata: The…
After a series of blogs on Maps, I will show how to use GADM data to draw maps for Austria at 4 different administrative levels. I thank Derek…
Today, I will build on my previous blogs to show you how to draw a map of United Nations General Assembly Voting Data with Stata (see here for…
In this blog, I will show you how to compute descriptive statistics by country in a panel data thanks to the Stata command putexcel in a few simple…
In this blog, I will show you that it is simple to switch back and forth between panel data and time series with the Stata command reshape. I…
Usually in Statistics, time is a continuous quantitative variable that uses the interval scale when we are looking at dates (the ratio scale when we elaborate on duration,…
The most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given for regions of…
Today, I will build on my two previous blogs to show you how to use an alternative projection for the maps. Indeed, you need a projection when you…
Today, I will build on my previous blog to show you how to merge two macroeconomic series, draw maps and think about some correlations in three simple steps:…
Using maps can be a good way to visualize the spatial dispersion of the data. I made a series of blogs on drawing maps on Stata available in…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
After a first blog presenting our paper on Artificial Intelligence and a second one presenting the Mathematica notebook that explains step-by-step the calculations. Let me draw your attention…
In this blog, you will learn to use the Denton method with Stata to interpolate a series to a higher frequency. I will show you a simple example…
The companion notebook for our paper has been selected into the Staff Picks into the Wolfram community blog: community.wolfram.com. This notebook aims to replicate all the computations in…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By…
Stata 18 est sorti en avril, j’aurai le plaisir d’animer un webinaire pour Timberlake. Ce webinaire présentera trois nouvelles commandes très prisées des utilisateurs : Nous organiserons une…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary…
Thanks to the wonderful guidance of Hashir Shoaib (hashirshoaeb), I finally manage to use GitHub pages to built a portfolio for my recent projects jamelsaadaoui.github.io/ Feel free to…
I will give my first training session for Timberlake, the 26th October 2023 at 9 – 11 am BST / 10 – 12 pm CEST: www.timberlake.co.uk The short…
Today, let me draw your attention to a very interesting book: Natural Resource Economics. Analysis, Theory, and Applications by Jon M. Conrad, Cornell University, New York, Daniel Rondeau, University of Victoria,…
Today, I will show how to estimate a DSGE model with Stata in a few steps. The model consists of 8 equations and is a variant of the…
Today I will present you VAR_NR, a Stata module to estimate set identified Structural VAR. This toolbox has been provided by Abigail Kuchek, Jonah Danziger and Christoffer Koch. On EconPapers,…
It is my 100th blog on EconMacro! I tried to provide some tips to access to knowledge all along these blogs. The idea is to try to make…
After first blogs on how to launch Stata and visualize high-frequency data in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following example, you will first see that Mathematica offers a…
The new TSPDLIB 3.0 GAUSS library has been released by APTECH. It is the most complete free library about structural-break econometrics that you will find on the web:…
After two first blogs (here and here) on how to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following file, you will see that Stata can be helpful…
You want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and associate…
Good news! In the new version of Stata 18, we have a new command that produces local-projection impulse–response functions. You can find the complete description of the command…
During my seminars of Applied Econometric with Stata in the Faculty of Economics and Management at the University of Strasbourg, I always tell to my students that the…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
Great news! Wolfram Research has launched a new function that could help to write a code in various languages: resources.wolframcloud.com/ This function requires that you have an account…
In this blog, I will show how to build a model of the fragility of an incomplete monetary union. The idea is to find the optimal inflation rule…
Let me repost this compilation of data sources posted by Menzie Chinn in the very interesting blog EconBrowser. This compilation is a must-read for every student in economics!
NEW PUBLICATION: We can use Fourier Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, time-varying fiscal reaction functions and threshold fiscal reactions functions. Over the period spanning from 1870 to 2017, we…
It is a great pleasure and an honor to announce that I wrote my first blog for APTECH with Eric Clower. In this blog, we will look more…
Let me draw your attention to this very pedagogical GAUSS blog on the Kalman filter. It links very well the theory and the code. Please find below the…
In this blog, we will see how to merge two datasets with different county code in a few simple steps. In my previous blog, I have shown how…
In this blog, I will show you in a few simple steps how to use the database aggregator DBnomics to retrieve some data with Stata. In a previous…
This is it! You now need 1 dollar to buy 1 euro. To get this picture below, I used the FRED connection with Mathematica 13.1, as I explained…
During the 24th INFER annual conference, I have the chance to assist to the presentation of a very interesting database on bilateral exports by Prof. Dr. Jennifer Pédussel…
In this blog, I will show how to build a simple model of the determination of the GDP with government and trade. The idea is to find the…
Do you want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and…
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Sherlock Holmes.A…
After a first blog about the Statistical Atlas of the European Commission (The Statistical Atlas) and a second one on how to draw maps with Stata (Drawing Maps…
The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes.The Valley of Fear, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1915). In this blog,…
I wisely started with a map, and made the story fit (generally with meticulous care for distances). J. R. R. Tolkien (1954) In this blog, I will show…
One way to convince some students that it is simple to demonstrate the value of the two first moments of a discrete distribution is to use Mathematica and…
A good way to visualize the effects of the international monetary system during the Bretton Wood era is to plot exchange rates over a long run period for…
“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” Sherlock Holmes. The Adventure of the Copper Beeches, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1892). In my previous…
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