I am delighted to announce that I will be a visiting scholar at the Bank of France from the 21st to the 31st of October. That is an immense honor and I hope my works will be of interest to the researchers in the Bank of France. I am extremely grateful to Kéa Baret for the invitation.
I would be delighted to present some of my ongoing projects:
- Joshua Aizenman, Jamel Saadaoui (2024), The Resilience of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Countries During ECB’s Monetary Cycles (September 16, 2024), NBER Working Paper w32957.
- John Beirne, Donghyun Park, Jamel Saadaoui, and Gazi Salah Uddin, Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Does Political Stability and Financial Development Matter? (September 01, 2024). SSRN Working Paper 4943355.
- William Ginn, Jamel Saadaoui (27 August 2024), Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence, SSRN Working Paper 4762672.
- Jamel Saadaoui (10 August 2024), The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments. INFER Working Paper 2024.13.
- Hugo Oriola, Jamel Saadaoui (31 May 2024), How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects? SSRN Working Paper 4849861.
- Joshua Aizenman, Donghyun Park, Irfan A. Qureshi, Gazi Salah Uddin, Jamel Saadaoui (4 April 2024), The Performance of Emerging Markets During The Fed’s Easing and Tightening Cycles: A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis. NBER Working Paper w32303.
During the fourth day of my small visiting scholar trip at the Banque de France, I prepared a couple of slides for a research seminar about a recent work with William Ginn.
Key results:
▶️ We estimate an augmented Taylor rule based on a geopolitical shock via constant and time-varying LP models
▶️ The panel evidence indicates that a geopolitical risk shock implies different monetary policy reactions
▶️ In the short run, the central bank is more accommodative to limiting the negative effects on consumer sentiment (at the 2-month horizon, a unit shock on GPR implies a decrease of .1 pp in the short-term interest rate)
▶️ In the medium run, the central bank is more committed to combating inflation pressures (at the 12-month horizon, a unit shock on GPR implies an increase of .5 pp in the short-term interest rate)
▶️ After the GFC, the monetary policy reaction is stronger
▶️ In case of large GPR shocks, the central bank is more accommodative in the short-run
