Interactions are everywhere in applied economics. We often want to know whether a policy buffer works differently across institutional environments: whether international reserves reduce recession risk more when…
My recent NBER working paper has been covered on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/aizenman-desbordes-and-saadaoui-quantifying-trade-destruction. Kinetic conflict (“military war”) and trade-context hostility (“trade war”) are both economically large and…
In this blog, I will show you how to use the eventdd Stata package with high-frequency data. This Stata package has been developed by Damian Clarke and Kathya…
The joint rise in Chinese and Russian gold reserves since the 2000s is more than a portfolio story. It also reflects a geopolitical realignment that became increasingly visible…
In three previous posts on the use of Geopolitical Turning Points as instruments for bilateral geopolitical relation, I presented the working paper, the underlying logic of the instrument,…
Recently, new research published in the Journal of International Economics shows that the Nickell bias affect panel local projections even when the lagged term for the dependent variable…
Local projections (LPs), following Jordà (2005), have become a standard tool for estimating impulse response functions (IRFs) in macroeconomics. Their appeal is well understood: LPs are simple to…
In a previous blog, I showed how to draw local projection’s impulse response function with Driscoll-Kraay inference in Stata. This is the picture what you get: But, Alfonso…
In a future work in preparation, we will explore how geopolitical relationship shocks, such as changes in US-China, China-Japan, or China-India relations, affect provincial GDP growth in China.…
Local projections (LPs) have become a workhorse tool in applied macroeconomics since Jordà (2005). They are flexible, robust to misspecification, and easy to interpret. In panel settings, however,…
Local projections have become one of the most widely used tools to study dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics. Their flexibility and robustness make them particularly attractive when researchers…
If you are familiar with the two-way graphs with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you want to make a two-way graph more readable, the…
After a map for Asia, the present example focuses on the joint distribution of economic growth and state capacity over the period 1960 to 2024. The result provides…
The present example focuses on the joint distribution of economic growth and state capacity over the period 1960 to 2024. The dataset contains country-level averages for the East…
Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to geoboundary, the Stata package provided by Asjad Naqvi. Drawing maps…
Climate watchers and oil traders are again looking at the same charts. In early autumn 2025, the United States Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory. Sea…
How do the shares of the USD reserves in total reserves since 2012? The map reveals a divergent adjustment in reserve currency composition since 2012. The US dollar’s…
The Chiṭu-Eichengreen-Mehl Global Currencies Database (CEMGCD) has been released and you can explore fascinating multiple databases provided in the following website: https://globalcurrenciesdatabase.com/publications-datasets For people interested in panel time…
In previous research of mine, I proposed a simple and efficient method to identify what I called the geopolitical turning points — unexpected change in bilateral geopolitical relationships.…
For an ongoing project with Joshua Aizenman for the ADBI, we have to explore the linkages between the State Capacity (available here) and the Institutional Score (available here).…
After this new Stata blog was released, I wanted to experiment a little with two of my latest blogs on Stata. If you have already installed Python on…
If you are familiar with the heatmaps with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you want to make the legend, the title is the name…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT database discussing how to start with these big data (https://www.jamelsaadaoui.com/tag/gdelt-data/), I propose to update the blog covering the bilateral relationship…
If you are familiar with the impulse response function (IRF) analysis with Stata, you might have encountered an annoying problem. When you plot an IRF, you will have…
The chart below tracks a 28‑day weighted moving average of political‑tension sentiment for France, normalized by France’s own history. It splits coverage by media origin. On Sep 21,…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT data, let me show you how to use the GDELT API to follow and watch the French Debt situation in…
Today, I will show you how to use the package of Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, xtnptimevar, that estimates non-parametric varying coefficients in panel data models with fixed effects. We…
Today, I propose an update of the following blog. So I recommend reading it before dive in this blog. Adding shaded areas is very simple with EViews, but…
During the past five years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences, and I learned…
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
Allow me to share a very nice interactive map of World Bank’s top 10 biggest debtors: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/686944bf-3818-5791-9f76-b97856fb8607
My previous blog has been mentioned on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews. Perhaps, the median of the current account balance as percentage of GDP may enter into the…
In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also…
After my two first blogs on EViews programming, we are going to use Markov-Switching AR models to estimate current account persistence with quarterly data. AR stands for autoregressive.…
In a previous blog, I explain how to use the JDemetra+ Seasonal Adjustment with EViews: Today, we are going to use an updated dataset for the quarterly current…
Allow me to share my first blog ever blog in EViews, I will show you how to use the JDemetra+ seasonal adjustment with EViews for a panel of…
For an ongoing project on political polarization with William Ginn, I have to make a graph to explain how evolve political polarization around the world. Fortunately, I found…
Today, let me echo a post written by Nicholas Wall, Head of Global FX Strategy, Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities at J.P. Morgan. We have a lot of repricing…
Allow me to share this very interesting graph from the latest IEA’s Energy Mix newsletters, based on current projections, the copper market will suffer from a 30% supply…
I am still exploring how to draw a Voronoi treemap. Besides, I found a very handy way to plot treemaps with subgroups using a Jupyter notebook. By using…
For an ongoing project on economic recoveries with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, I have to make a graph to explain how we…
In a previous blog, I have shown how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. This time, I will use the EM-DAT database…
Allow me to share this piece by The Economist about Tin, a critical mineral that is enjoying a boom: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/03/tin-an-overlooked-critical-metal-is-enjoying-a-boom They also underline that Tin has a small…
In a recent PIIE blog post, Joseph Gagnon investigate whether fiscal and exchange rate policy can reduce the trade deficit. He also looks at the impact of tariffs…
Allow me to share with this very nice blog by Felipe Camargo: https://fcamargo.substack.com/p/applied-linear-algebra-in-economics-0a7 He gives a very nice example on how to identify a shock in VAR model…
Allow me to share this very nice visual guide to critical materials and rare earths made by The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths They did a fantastic job and provide the…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT data, let show how to use the GDELT API to follow and watch uncertainty in real time. On EconBrowser, Menzie…
Today, let met show you how to use VBA to improve the functioning of OUTREG2 created by Roy Wada, a very nice package to produce estimate tables after…
In a recent NBER WP, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates around the 2024 US presidential election. In a previous post, I present this…
I found this very nice interactive page on the EIA website. You can produce very nice visualizations and Maps. The numbers are for 2023 and in quadrillions (10^15)…
The Brent-WTI spread has known important evolutions after 2010. While it is well known by practitioners, market participants and academics, it may be useful to recall this point.…
In a previous post, I covered the fact that the Biden administration wanted to “friend-shore” the US trade and work with “friendly” and “like-minded” countries. The new Trump…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In this blog, I will show how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. The dataset comes from a paper of mine on…
Temperature changes may not be a good indicator or instrument for climate change or vulnerability to climate change. This nice visualization pushes me to think that the annual…
In his recent article in Foreign Affairs, Nicholas Eberstadt explores the consequence of a world gone gray. Most of the country in the world already have sub-replacement fertility…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to access a subcomponent of ND GAIN scores. I recommend you to consult my blog series on DBnomics before delving…
During the past four years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences and I learned…
Let me show you how to add a third dimension on a bivariate maps in this second update of my blog on drawing bivariate maps for the Chinese…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
Yesterday, Stata released two videos on how to use Difference-in-Differences commands built-in within Stata. The videos are very pedagogical, so allow me to share them with you: Treatment…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
In this blog, I will show how to use the Stata commands ‘graph combine’ and ‘foreach loop’ to produce high-quality graphs that may be included in the Data…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
In Stata, you can write long commands over several lines. You have basically three choices: first, change the end-of-line delimiter to ‘;’ with the following commands : “delimit…
In Stata 18, you can easily create the “Table 1” for your research work using the new dtable command. In the following, I will show how to use…
In a recent article published in the Journal of econometrics, we have some further insights about the bias-variance trade-off between IRF (Impulse Response Function) produced by the VAR…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
Sometimes, you need to draw histograms using two variables, with one variable containing the frequencies. Using fictional data, I will show you, in some simple steps, how to…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
A small update of the following blog if you want to remove Turkey:
After three blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After two blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
After a first blog on how to visualize the ND-GAIN vulnerability scores, I was keen to explore the sub-categories of the vulnerability scores. Among them, I was particularly…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
After a series of blogs where I explained the functioning of the DBnomics package: www.jamelsaadaoui.com I will show how to directly download the Vulnerability Index built by the…
In his last post, Cullen S. Hendrix from the PIIE proposed to measure friendliness and like-mindedness using mean absolute distance with the US for two variables, the polyarchy…
Did you know that you can use an API to display instability scores computed from GDELT data? Below, an example for the French region (first administrative level): https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
When you are interested in geopolitical risks, up to some point you will heard about the GDELT project: https://www.gdeltproject.org Here, the brief description on their website: A Global…
As we recall in a recent article, written with Valérie Mignon, oil production facilities may be military objectives during a war or a conflict: Mignon, V., & Saadaoui,…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
Last week, I saw this picture in a post written by Ziad Daoud, the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. It would be interesting to explore if ex-ante…
Happy to announce that I now have a Medium page: https://medium.com/@jamelsaadaoui, where I will make a selection of my best blogs on EconMacro. These blogs will stay free…
During the 16th FIW conference, I had the chance to attend the policy panel on the “Tectonic shifts in the international economic order”. Giorgia Giovannetti gave us some…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to build databases at the NUTS 0, NUTS 1, NUTS 2 levels. I recommend you to consult my blog series…
What if I told you that you can build a panel dataset of 3 variables for almost 200 countries and around 60 years in less than four minutes?…
The levels of Geopolitical Risks are now close to those of the Cold War, as mentioned by Cullen S. Hendrix in this PIIE chart: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/2020s-mark-return-cold-war-levels-geopolitical-risk. What does it…
As mentioned in the last Stata News 39-1, the reshape command is now faster, much faster. For an ongoing project, I had to reshape daily data for sovereign…
Today, I will show how to add shaded areas for NBER recession dates with Stata. I begin by importing the data of the Sahm Rule with Stata: The…
In this blog, I will show you how to compute descriptive statistics by country in a panel data thanks to the Stata command putexcel in a few simple…
In this blog, I will show you that it is simple to switch back and forth between panel data and time series with the Stata command reshape. I…
Usually in Statistics, time is a continuous quantitative variable that uses the interval scale when we are looking at dates (the ratio scale when we elaborate on duration,…
Thanks to the wonderful guidance of Hashir Shoaib (hashirshoaeb), I finally manage to use GitHub pages to built a portfolio for my recent projects jamelsaadaoui.github.io/ Feel free to…
A few days ago, I assisted to wonderful presentation by Di Liu of StataCorp LLC. His explanations were crystal clear about the difference-in-difference commands introduced in Stata 18.…
Today, I will show how to estimate a DSGE model with Stata in a few steps. The model consists of 8 equations and is a variant of the…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In the Appendix A of this book: Statistics: Principles and Methods written by Giuseppe Cicchitelli, Pierpaolo D’Urso and Marco Minozzo published by Pearson in 2021, I found the…
It is a great pleasure and an honor to announce that I wrote my first blog for APTECH with Eric Clower. In this blog, we will look more…
Kurtosis tells you virtually nothing about the shape of the peak – its only unambiguous interpretation is in terms of tail extremity; i.e., either existing outliers (for the…
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