Why the Plucking Model Fails Under Conflict
Israel’s economy is now 7% below its pre-war trend. Unlike the COVID-19 recession, this time there is no quick rebound. The plucking model fails under conflict, where instability…
Israel’s economy is now 7% below its pre-war trend. Unlike the COVID-19 recession, this time there is no quick rebound. The plucking model fails under conflict, where instability…
In this blog, I update a previous blog of mine using an orthogonalized version of the religious tension variable coming from the international country risk guide (ICRG). Orthogonalization…
NEW PUBLICATION: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries have…
During the 27th INFER conference, I had the chance to present a recent paper on the impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risks. In this paper, we show…
If you are a macroeconomist interested in impulse response function analysis, you need to watch this presentation by Christian Wolf during the 40th Annual NBER Conference on Macroeconomics,…
Today, I will show you how to use the package of Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, xtnptimevar, that estimates non-parametric varying coefficients in panel data models with fixed effects. We…
Ces derniers temps, on entend beaucoup de choses sur la dette publique française… Alors, voici ma petite contribution au bruit ambiant. Voici comment on peut présenter les choses…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the National Bank of Slovakia during a research seminar…
Today, I propose an update of the following blog. So I recommend reading it before dive in this blog. Adding shaded areas is very simple with EViews, but…
In this blog, we will see how to use Stata and Python to download daily gold prices in USD. I will rely on a series of blogs showing…
During the 24th INFER annual conference, I have the chance to attend the presentation of a very interesting database on bilateral exports by Prof. Dr. Jennifer Pédussel Wu.…
I successfully defended my PhD thesis some almost 11 years ago, and I recently got the promotion to full professor. Therefore, it is a good time to ask…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
I will have the great honor to make a “hands-on” seminar for the VIMM: Virtual Israel Macro Meeting on Local Projections on September 9, 2025 (15:00 Israel Time):…
Introduction Is Marxism a scientific economic theory, an ideology, or a historical paradigm? Few frameworks have shaped economic thought and political action as deeply as Marxism. Yet, the…
Truly honored to present some recent research at DeFiPP is a research institute from the University of Namur (Belgium) during a research seminar on November 18, 2025 (4:00…
Today, we will see how to translate the first part of the code the threshold VAR model in Balke (2000) using ChatGPT5. It took me a few hours and…
Today, we will see how to draw maps with Stata for the largest cities in the world. I used geoplot with multiple frames and an orthographic projection. I…
During the past five years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences, and I learned…
Today, I update the most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on three previous blogs showing how to use Using DBnomics with Stata…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on two previous blogs showing how to use Using DBnomics with Stata…
In this blog, we will see how to use with Stata and Python. I will rely on a previous blog showing how to use DBnomics with Stata. This…
In this blog, I will leverage my yesterday’s blog to analyze the daily exchange rate dynamics between the US 2024 Presidential Election and the Tariff Deadline. I am…
In this blog, I will show you how to download and plot daily bilateral exchange rates. The data comes from the BIS, and the code used in this blog…
In this blog, I will show you how to download and plot high-frequency data (HFD) for the EURUSD currency pair. The data comes from Polygon.io (you need to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin at the Bank of Latvia during a research seminar on…
In my third Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about how political stability and trade restrictions…
For an ongoing project about the drivers of recessions for a large cross-section of countries observed between 1990 and 2022, I have to compute the number of quarters…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
Eric Voeten has posted new data on the geopolitical alignment on his repository on the Harvard Dataverse: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ and scroll down. The description of the data: This dataset…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Very honored to contribute my sixth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
Recently, I had a very bad experience with a referee report. Basically, he/she told me that our paper has too many tables and that the number of tables…
In this blog, I will show you how to plot a 3D plot based on a two-way fixed effect panel model with an interaction term. The data and…
I reach the threshold of 25 percent of my papers (12 out of 38 articles since 2010) with an available replication archive on my GitHub. I hope to…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Copper and lithium are essential to the global energy transition, each playing distinct roles in enabling low-carbon technologies. However, their supply chains are highly vulnerable…
Delighted to share that I have accessed for the first time the Top 5% of RePEc’s author ranking over the last 10 years of publications. Since I started…
For an ongoing project for the European Commission, I have to run some panel data regressions. Not so uncommon, isn’t it? After the panel regressions and if you…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We identify the negative influence of nationalist sentiment on economic growth. Our cross-country evidence confirms the growth-depressing effect of nationalism, projecting that economic growth has…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…
Economics is a social science. That might surprise you if you are an economist reading those lines. After all, economists use formalization (mathematics and statistics) like in physics,…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, at the Birkbeck College during a research seminar on Thursday 10 July 2025 (London 2:00 PM). I am…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Montpellier in two weeks for the 30th IDPC. This International Conference is organized by the Université de Montpellier. The…
Truly honored to present our NBER Working Paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, at the Bank of Korea during a research seminar on Friday 18 July 2025 (Seoul 10:30 AM). I…
The replication package of the Debt-at-Risk paper from the IMF is available here: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/05/05/Debt-at-Risk-566595 It has been released by Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei R Lam,…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on two concurrent events: the Red Sea Crisis,…
NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…
As you may know, I am a huge fan of Stata (I have to tell the real story behind that choice one day…) and like to share knowledge…
I am the new editor of RePEc’s NEP International Finance: https://nep.repec.org/nep-ifn.html. I thank Marco Novarese for the opportunity.
During the 4th CINSC / 2025 conference in Edinburgh, I presented my joint research written with Joshua Aizenman: Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Edinburgh at the beginning of the next week for the 4th CINSC/2025 INFINITI. This International Conference is organized by the…
In this new version of this paper, written with Yifei Cai, we find evidence of time-varying scapegoating: The shocks in US Partisan Conflict provoke a decrease of the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates the impact of consumer confidence shocks on economic conditions. We estimate consumer confidence innovations using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and…
Allow me to share a very nice interactive map of World Bank’s top 10 biggest debtors: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/686944bf-3818-5791-9f76-b97856fb8607
My previous blog has been mentioned on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews. Perhaps, the median of the current account balance as percentage of GDP may enter into the…
In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also…
After my two first blogs on EViews programming, we are going to use Markov-Switching AR models to estimate current account persistence with quarterly data. AR stands for autoregressive.…
In a previous blog, I explain how to use the JDemetra+ Seasonal Adjustment with EViews: Today, we are going to use an updated dataset for the quarterly current…
Allow me to share my first blog ever blog in EViews, I will show you how to use the JDemetra+ seasonal adjustment with EViews for a panel of…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Paris in three weeks for the 46th IAEE International Conference. This International Conference is organized by the International…
My Central Bank tour continues, the next stop is the Bank of Korea! After the Bank of Thailand in May 2024, the Banque de France in October 2025,…
I am delighted to announce that I will travel to Italy for the 2025 IAAE Italy International Association for Applied Econometrics. This International Conference is organized by the…
Allow me to share a small update about work, I found an easy way to plot the impulse response function using the beta release of RATS 11, and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast…
Delighted to announce that I will participate in the Conference on Political Capitalism this week. This conference is organized by Corvinus University of Budapest and University of Sorbonne…
For an ongoing project on political polarization with William Ginn, I have to make a graph to explain how evolve political polarization around the world. Fortunately, I found…
Today, let me echo a post written by Nicholas Wall, Head of Global FX Strategy, Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities at J.P. Morgan. We have a lot of repricing…
In our recent update working paper, Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Fiscal Risk: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi…
Today, allow me to share with you this wonderful blog by Eric Clower on how to estimate a SVAR with GAUSS: https://www.aptech.com/blog/estimating-svar-models-with-gauss/ You might also be interested in…
Allow me to share this very interesting graph from the latest IEA’s Energy Mix newsletters, based on current projections, the copper market will suffer from a 30% supply…
Delighted to announce that I will participate in the 2025 French Stata Conference in two weeks. This conference is organized by the Aix-Marseille Université School of Economics. The…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study aims to predict currency, banking, and debt crises using a dataset of 184 crisis events and 2896 non-crisis cases from 79 countries (1970-2017).…
Today, let me update a previous blog of mine to show you how to retrieve the series for the impulses response functions, the forecast error variance decompositions, and…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025 (Paris 9:30…
I am still exploring how to draw a Voronoi treemap. Besides, I found a very handy way to plot treemaps with subgroups using a Jupyter notebook. By using…
For an ongoing project on economic recoveries with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, I have to make a graph to explain how we…
We are delighted to earn the Scottish Journal of Political Economy Prize for the Best Paper published in 2024 for our joint research with Yifei Cai and Yanrui…
NEW PUBLICATION: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant…
In a previous blog, I have shown how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. This time, I will use the EM-DAT database…
Allow me to share this piece by The Economist about Tin, a critical mineral that is enjoying a boom: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/03/tin-an-overlooked-critical-metal-is-enjoying-a-boom They also underline that Tin has a small…
After a first blog on the Global Macro Database, let me update the code to download the whole database: The file for replicating this blog is available on…
In a recent PIIE blog post, Joseph Gagnon investigate whether fiscal and exchange rate policy can reduce the trade deficit. He also looks at the impact of tariffs…
In a previous post, we asked whether France did turn porcine in the context of a grim fiscal outlook: The results of the democracy index of The Economist…
Allow me to share with this very nice blog by Felipe Camargo: https://fcamargo.substack.com/p/applied-linear-algebra-in-economics-0a7 He gives a very nice example on how to identify a shock in VAR model…
Allow me to share this very nice visual guide to critical materials and rare earths made by The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths They did a fantastic job and provide the…
Allow me to share the following piece, written by Jared Rubin, about the complex links between religion, development, and growth: https://www.broadstreet.blog/p/religion-and-development When I finished my PhD in 2012,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper considers 18 OPEC countries that were low-income countries when oil was found. Oil has given the countries a special path to high income.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I explore the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict and global oil prices over the last 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections, I find…
I am delighted to announce that I have been ranked 1st in the visiting program of the University of Macerata. Besides, I am extremely grateful to my colleague…
NEW PUBLICATION: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies. This…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT data, let show how to use the GDELT API to follow and watch uncertainty in real time. On EconBrowser, Menzie…
Today, let met show you how to use VBA to improve the functioning of OUTREG2 created by Roy Wada, a very nice package to produce estimate tables after…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025, during my…
China will move increasingly toward political freedom if it continues its successful movement for economic freedom. — Milton Friedman in 2003. Milton Friedman was a giant of economics,…
In a recent NBER WP, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates around the 2024 US presidential election. In a previous post, I present this…
As you may know, I am a huge fan of Christopher Nolan. In one of his first movies, Memento, the main character makes a philosophical mistake that could…
In this post, I will clarify the interpretation of triple interaction term in Stata. I will leverage a previous blog that clarifies the use of lincom, nlcom, and…
In this post, I will show how to use some postestimation tools in Stata to test linear combination of coefficients with interactions terms between two continuous variables. I…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
Our work has been mentioned in the blog of the International Federation of Robotics. For decades, technology has reshaped job markets throughout the world, often strengthening the relative…
In this blog, I illustrate the LP-DiD estimator by Dube, Girardi, and Jorda (2023). I will leverage my previous blogs on Heterogeneous Difference-in-Differences with Stata: This new estimator…
I found this very nice interactive page on the EIA website. You can produce very nice visualizations and Maps. The numbers are for 2023 and in quadrillions (10^15)…
Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the second time for the 32nd Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. This…
Really happy to announce that our paper, written with Hugo Oriola, “How do geopolitical interests affect financial markets reaction to international institution projects?” has been accepted for presentation…
The Brent-WTI spread has known important evolutions after 2010. While it is well known by practitioners, market participants and academics, it may be useful to recall this point.…
NEW PUBLICATION: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant and…
Allow me to share this podcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond where Marina Azzimonti discusses the mechanisms that could lead to an institutional risk premium. The…
A new database is available that compiles 46 variables for 243 countries from 110 sources. Overall, that’s a very nice public good. A ton of thanks to the…
In a previous post, I covered the fact that the Biden administration wanted to “friend-shore” the US trade and work with “friendly” and “like-minded” countries. The new Trump…
After a series of blogs using RATS, allow me to introduce the estimation of Markov-switching models and unit root tests using RATS. We are going to use the…
J’ai le plaisir de vous annoncer ma seconde note de blog sur le site l’AFSE concernant l’impact des risques climatiques sur l’espace budgétaire. Dans laquelle, nous tentons de…
“Data! Data! Data! He cried impatiently. I can’t make bricks without clay.”The Adventure of the Copper Beeches – a Sherlock Holmes Short Story Arthur Conan Doyle Last week,…
After two blogs on SVAR with RATS and on SVAR with sign restrictions with Stata, allow me to introduce the estimation of SVAR with sign restrictions using RATS…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of political polarization on output growth, capital formation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 139 economies via a panel Local…
After Yesterday’s post on how to get access to daily data for exchange rate from the BIS using Python. Here, I add a Stata code snippet to investigate…
The Bank for International Settlements provides access to daily exchange rates. It may be interesting to plot the evolution of exchange rates since the Inauguration Day of the…
In the Stata New 40-1, it is easier to have access to template do-files from the menu. In this blog, I will show how to use a program…
Tomorrow, I will present a recent research written with Joshua Aizenman at the 4th IEAP Meeting: Investor Emotions & Asset Pricing in Lille at the IAE Lille. The…
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
NEW PUBLICATION: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries observed…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
The US has announced the toughest sanctions yet on Russian tankers. As stated by Reuters: “Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and…
In a few days, Alfonso Ugarte from BBVA will release an updated version of his package LOCPROJ. In this new version, the LPGRAPH command has been greatly improved…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In a previous blog, I covered the estimation of state-dependent local projection using LOCPROJ. The impact of random shocks of change in vulnerability affects positively the sovereign bond…
In this blog, I will show how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. The dataset comes from a paper of mine on…
Temperature changes may not be a good indicator or instrument for climate change or vulnerability to climate change. This nice visualization pushes me to think that the annual…
Pleased to announce that 10 articles have been published in our special issue of European Journal of Political Economy. Saadaoui, J., Barbier-Gauchard, A., & Strum, J.-E. (2025). Geopolitical…
During the next week, I will present my paper on the Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space during the Second edition of the International Conference on the…
In this recent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, Atsushi Inoue, Òscar Jordà and Guido M. Kuersteiner offer a survey of the best practice about recent…
NEW PUBLICATION: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly…
In his recent article in Foreign Affairs, Nicholas Eberstadt explores the consequence of a world gone gray. Most of the country in the world already have sub-replacement fertility…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to access a subcomponent of ND GAIN scores. I recommend you to consult my blog series on DBnomics before delving…
In the last version of my working paper on the impact of climate risk on fiscal space, we use Joyplots to visualize the distribution of the ND-GAINS vulnerability…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that a few of my most viewed research on SSRN will…
Happy new year to all of you. I hope that this new year will be great and that a few of my most viewed posts will help some…
A few days ago, I read the Country Risk Annual Report made by BBVA research and Alfonso Ugarte and David Sarasa Flores, in particular. On the slide 26,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates nonlinearities in the inflation-growth-uncertainty relationship in Chinese provinces over the period 1992 to 2017 using nonlinear models and dynamic panel threshold models.…
During the past four years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences and I learned…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a linear…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads…
In my second SUERF policy brief, written with Joshua Aizenman, you will learn about how CESEE countries get back to the fast track: https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/how-can-central-eastern-and-southeastern-europe-cesee-countries-get-back-on-the-fast-track Our empirical results identify…
The “Wandel durch handel” era is now finished. Basically, the WdH (abbreviation of Wandel durch handel) doctrine means change through trade was the backbone of German foreign policy…
Today, allow me to repost a blog written by Menzie Chinn about the French debt situation. The post is available on EconBrowser https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/12/frances-sovereign-debt-situation-some-graphs According to The Economist, France…
In my first SUERF policy brief, written with David Bloom, Klaus Prettner, and Mario Veruete, you will learn about how AI may affect the wage skill premium: https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/how-will-artificial-intelligence-affect-the-skill-premium…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
Our NBER working paper has been cited on the website of Christopher McKee, PhD, the CEO of the PRS (Political Risk Services) Group. Comments and remarks are welcome,…
Tomorrow, Friday 29 November, I will be very pleased to chair the “Climate-related risks” session during the 14th JT of the French Association of Environmental and Resources Economists: https://jt-faere-epr24.sciencesconf.org/.…
Allow me to share my second ADB blog written by John Beirne, Donghyun Park and Gazi Salah Uddin. Based on our recent joint ADB Economics working paper: Climate…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries…
Today, I repost a blog written by Richard Baldwin on LinkedIn. The post is outstanding and gives multiple very interesting insights about current development on the economic consequences…
Very honored to contribute my fifth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
In our last research, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates after the 2024 US Presidential election. Our identification strategy for the causality relies on…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures…
Particularly honored to announce that I will visit the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) in April and May 2025. I look forward to starting the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored by Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, and Gazi Salah Uddin, in the main research seminar…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of local and global geopolitical risks (GPR) on real equity returns. Using a panel and country-specific local projections (LP) model,…
Let me show you how to add a third dimension on a bivariate maps in this second update of my blog on drawing bivariate maps for the Chinese…
Last week, I noticed the publication of a new research in Energy Economics by Hakan Yilmazkuday: Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices. Energy…
Allow me to share that I published my second working paper for the Asian Development Bank: Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored with Joshua Aizenman, in the DG-E research seminar of the European Central Bank on Thursday, November 21, 2024.…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how financial…
In my second Vox EU column, written with David Bloom, Klaus Prettner, and Mario Veruete, you will learn about how AI may affect the wage skill premium: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/expansion-ai-will-likely-shrink-earnings-inequality…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored by Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, and Gazi Salah Uddin, in the main research seminar…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies.…
Our recent publication, written with Joshua Aizenman, Donghyun Park, Gazi Salah Uddin and Irfan Qureshi, is covered in the blog Ideas for India: As the US dollar and…
Pleased to announce that 8 papers have been already published in our special issue of European Journal of Political Economy. https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10QWWKJQLXQPlease take a look if you are interested…
Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the first time for a two-day workshop on “Energy Transition and Climate Change” in the city of Redondo…
I am delighted to announce that I will be a visiting scholar at the Bank of France from the 21st to the 31st of October. That is an…
Last Monday, I had the chance to welcome Hiro Ito for a research seminar at the University Paris 8. We had interesting discussions about this provocative question: Can…
Very honored to contribute my fourth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. The recent literature establishes that climate risk reduces the fiscal space,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries…
In this recent paper, Olea-Montiel, Plagborg-Møller, Qian and Wolf “provide a formal proof of Jordà’s claim that conventional LP confidence intervals for impulse responses are surprisingly robust to…
A recent Bank of England working paper by Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel suggests using a one-step approach with appropriate controls in the LP estimations. Lloyd, Simon &…
Please watch this excellent video on The Schumpeterian Growth Model (Multi-Sector Version) by Klaus Prettner. It is a very pedagogical video and a follow-up to the One-Sector version.…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
In our new working paper, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, we find that political stability together with financial development matter for the negative…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
In this post, I will show you how to reshape ICRG data faster. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset is maintained by the PRS group. In their…
Allow me to share this excellent and pedagogical video on the first iterations of the Schumpeterian Growth model made by Klaus Prettner. The equations are explained step-by-step. On…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a more systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how…
It was a real pleasure to present my paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Toan D. L. Hyun, Sy-Hoa Ho, and Gazi S. Uddin, on the usefulness of international…
MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
This post is based on two videos posted by Vasilis Sarafidis on his YouTube channel. In the first one, he presents briefly the theory about the rank condition…
Yesterday, Stata released two videos on how to use Difference-in-Differences commands built-in within Stata. The videos are very pedagogical, so allow me to share them with you: Treatment…
The Bank for International Settlements has produced a formidable effort to construct historical series for central bank total assets. The data and the methodology are available on their…
As some of you may know, I have growing interests in the field of Political Economy. It appeared that the set of explained variables that I studied in…
Allow me to share this ADB blog written by Donghyun Park and Irfan A. Qureshi. Based on our recent joint publication in the Journal of International Money and…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
What is science? Science is above all a method aimed at discovering the truth. In a previous post of mine, I recommended a YouTube video capturing a lesson…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that…
In this blog, I will show how to use the Stata commands ‘graph combine’ and ‘foreach loop’ to produce high-quality graphs that may be included in the Data…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
It is my 200th blog on EconMacro, let me enjoy this opportunity to announce that I am now an External Consultant at the Asian Development Bank. Let me…
In Stata, you can write long commands over several lines. You have basically three choices: first, change the end-of-line delimiter to ‘;’ with the following commands : “delimit…
In Stata 18, you can easily create the “Table 1” for your research work using the new dtable command. In the following, I will show how to use…
After a first post on the conception of the scientific method by Richard Feynman, let us look at the following paper written paper by David F. Hendry: David…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary…
In a recent article published in the Journal of econometrics, we have some further insights about the bias-variance trade-off between IRF (Impulse Response Function) produced by the VAR…
I am happy and honored to announce that I am now a Research Fellow at the Economic Research Forum. Let me add that I hope that I will…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
Last Friday, I had the chance to welcome Joshua Aizenman for a research seminar at the University of Strasbourg: https://www.beta-economics.fr/. We had an interesting discussion about this provocative…
11 years after my first position as an Associate Professor (maître de conférences) in Strasbourg. I am now a Full Professor of Economics (professeur des universités) at the…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz from BBVA research introduced the locproj package: s459204. The package is very useful, and I will show you how to customize the LP impulse response…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This research investigates the intricate dynamics between the catalytic effect of projects financed by international institutions and geopolitical interests. Through the construction of a monthly…
Sometimes, you need to draw histograms using two variables, with one variable containing the frequencies. Using fictional data, I will show you, in some simple steps, how to…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
A small update of the following blog if you want to remove Turkey:
After three blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After two blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
After a first blog on how to visualize the ND-GAIN vulnerability scores, I was keen to explore the sub-categories of the vulnerability scores. Among them, I was particularly…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
Some materials for my lecture notes in Probability and Statistics are available on GitHub: https://github.com/. You will find the Mathematica notebooks and the PDF of my lectures for…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
After a series of blogs where I explained the functioning of the DBnomics package: www.jamelsaadaoui.com I will show how to directly download the Vulnerability Index built by the…
Truly honored to present our new NBER paper, written with Joshua Aizenman, Donghyun Park, Gazi Salah Uddin and Irfan Qureshi, at the International Monetary Fund’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) Policy Forum:…
Very honored to contribute my third guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/.
NEW PUBLICATION: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over…
In his last post, Cullen S. Hendrix from the PIIE proposed to measure friendliness and like-mindedness using mean absolute distance with the US for two variables, the polyarchy…
I am now an Associate Editor of International Economics and Economic Policy: Springer. International Economics and Economic Policy publishes theoretical and empirical research relevant to economic policy, serving as…
In terms of global oil demand, some believe it. In future years, India may become the new leader in terms of economic growth. Some structural features hinder the…
Did you know that you can use an API to display instability scores computed from GDELT data? Below, an example for the French region (first administrative level): https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored by Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh, and Gazi Salah Uddin, in the Empirical Economics research…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
Sometimes, you need to extract some countries when you are using a panel. The most simple way to proceed is to use a loop after the creation of…
NEW BOOK CHAPTER: This chapter looks at the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) at the world and regional levels, with a focus on East, South…
When you are interested in geopolitical risks, up to some point you will heard about the GDELT project: https://www.gdeltproject.org Here, the brief description on their website: A Global…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
Commerce is a cure for the most destructive prejudices…wherever we find agreeable manners, there commerce flourishes; and that wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners.…
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