My recent NBER working paper has been covered on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/aizenman-desbordes-and-saadaoui-quantifying-trade-destruction. Kinetic conflict (“military war”) and trade-context hostility (“trade war”) are both economically large and precisely estimated. Routine diplomacy, despite dominating measured hostility, has a trade effect indistinguishable from zero.