Geopolitics affects oil prices through expectations about both demand and supply. Our paper shows that better US–China political relations and higher China-related geopolitical risk can both raise oil…
An improvement in relations between major powers can lower oil prices today and raise them later. The paper interprets this sequence through an initial decline in precautionary demand…
Geopolitical tensions can raise oil prices by threatening supply. They can also depress prices by weakening the outlook for trade, investment and energy demand. US–China relations provide an…
Joint Inference in LP: Wald Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Bands A response curve can have a 95% simultaneous confidence band that includes zero at every horizon and still…
In joint work with Marco Gallegati, William Ginn, Solomos Solomou, and Kun Tian—Climate Shocks in Global Oil Markets: Time-Varying ENSO Transmission to WTI Spot and Futures Prices—we study…
This blog was inspired by a discussion with Davide Romelli at the SILVAPLANA POLITICAL ECONOMY 2026 workshop. Davide suggested that I include future values of the shock in…
Climate watchers and oil traders are again looking at the same charts. In early autumn 2025, the United States Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory. Sea…
Very honored to contribute my seventh guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/. The other posts…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks on U.S. oil futures and goods market prices from 1983:03 to 2024:10 via the…
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