As you may know, if you follow my Blog EconMacro and my research works, I introduced in the literature an instrumental strategy for geopolitics in this research earlier this year. This post carefully explain the strategy.
This strategy has been applied in the following four papers:
- For the global oil markets and Chinese geopolitics: Saadaoui, J. (2026). Geopolitical Turning Points and Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bilateral Identification Strategy. Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 54, Issue 3, September 2026, Pages 804-818, 10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.010. OPEN ACCESS.
- For the critical metals and minerals and US-Chinese geopolitics: Saadaoui, J., Russell, S., Vespignani, J. & Yitian, W. (2026). Use-specific Storage Premia and Market Stabilization for Critical Minerals in the Presence of Geopolitical Risk (March 4, 2026). Available at SSRN: 6217320.
- For Chinese exports and Chinese geopolitics: Saadaoui, J., Strauss‐Kahn, V., & Creel, J. (2026). How geopolitics influences the exports of Chinese firms. CAMA Working Paper 22/2026. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. OPEN ACCESS.
- For the global oil markets, nuclear threats and diplomatic tensions (AI-GPR): Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2026). Not All Geopolitical Turning Points Are Alike: Oil Price Effects and Implications for Energy Security Policy (20 September 2026). SSRN 7494838.
Next week, I am delighted that the first paper will be presented during the 12th International MACroeconomics Workshop: Macroeconomic Policy Making in Turbulent Times at the University of Rennes during the next week. I thank Tovonony Razafindrabe and Fabien Rondeau for the invitation. The week after I will present the same paper at the research webinar of my university, Paris 8 University. I thank Alessandra Pizzo for the invitation.
