The Economic Cost of Nationalism
NEW WORKING PAPER: We identify the negative influence of nationalist sentiment on economic growth. Our cross-country evidence confirms the growth-depressing effect of nationalism, projecting that economic growth has…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We identify the negative influence of nationalist sentiment on economic growth. Our cross-country evidence confirms the growth-depressing effect of nationalism, projecting that economic growth has…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…
NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…
During the 4th CINSC / 2025 conference in Edinburgh, I presented my joint research written with Joshua Aizenman: Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Edinburgh at the beginning of the next week for the 4th CINSC/2025 INFINITI. This International Conference is organized by the…
In this new version of this paper, written with Yifei Cai, we find evidence of time-varying scapegoating: The shocks in US Partisan Conflict provoke a decrease of the…
Allow me to share a very nice interactive map of World Bank’s top 10 biggest debtors: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/686944bf-3818-5791-9f76-b97856fb8607
My previous blog has been mentioned on EconBrowser by Menzie Chinn: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/06/global-imbalances-as-global-recession-ews. Perhaps, the median of the current account balance as percentage of GDP may enter into the…
In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also…
After my two first blogs on EViews programming, we are going to use Markov-Switching AR models to estimate current account persistence with quarterly data. AR stands for autoregressive.…
In a previous blog, I explain how to use the JDemetra+ Seasonal Adjustment with EViews: Today, we are going to use an updated dataset for the quarterly current…
Allow me to share my first blog ever blog in EViews, I will show you how to use the JDemetra+ seasonal adjustment with EViews for a panel of…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast…
For an ongoing project on political polarization with William Ginn, I have to make a graph to explain how evolve political polarization around the world. Fortunately, I found…
Today, let me echo a post written by Nicholas Wall, Head of Global FX Strategy, Global Fixed Income Currency & Commodities at J.P. Morgan. We have a lot of repricing…
In our recent update working paper, Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Fiscal Risk: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi…
Today, allow me to share with you this wonderful blog by Eric Clower on how to estimate a SVAR with GAUSS: https://www.aptech.com/blog/estimating-svar-models-with-gauss/ You might also be interested in…
Allow me to share this very interesting graph from the latest IEA’s Energy Mix newsletters, based on current projections, the copper market will suffer from a 30% supply…
Today, let me update a previous blog of mine to show you how to retrieve the series for the impulses response functions, the forecast error variance decompositions, and…
I am still exploring how to draw a Voronoi treemap. Besides, I found a very handy way to plot treemaps with subgroups using a Jupyter notebook. By using…
For an ongoing project on economic recoveries with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, I have to make a graph to explain how we…
In a previous blog, I have shown how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. This time, I will use the EM-DAT database…
Allow me to share this piece by The Economist about Tin, a critical mineral that is enjoying a boom: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/03/tin-an-overlooked-critical-metal-is-enjoying-a-boom They also underline that Tin has a small…
In a recent PIIE blog post, Joseph Gagnon investigate whether fiscal and exchange rate policy can reduce the trade deficit. He also looks at the impact of tariffs…
In a previous post, we asked whether France did turn porcine in the context of a grim fiscal outlook: The results of the democracy index of The Economist…
Allow me to share this very nice visual guide to critical materials and rare earths made by The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/03/24/a-visual-guide-to-critical-materials-and-rare-earths They did a fantastic job and provide the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper considers 18 OPEC countries that were low-income countries when oil was found. Oil has given the countries a special path to high income.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I explore the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict and global oil prices over the last 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections, I find…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025, during my…
China will move increasingly toward political freedom if it continues its successful movement for economic freedom. — Milton Friedman in 2003. Milton Friedman was a giant of economics,…
In a recent NBER WP, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates around the 2024 US presidential election. In a previous post, I present this…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
The Brent-WTI spread has known important evolutions after 2010. While it is well known by practitioners, market participants and academics, it may be useful to recall this point.…
In a previous post, I covered the fact that the Biden administration wanted to “friend-shore” the US trade and work with “friendly” and “like-minded” countries. The new Trump…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of political polarization on output growth, capital formation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 139 economies via a panel Local…
After Yesterday’s post on how to get access to daily data for exchange rate from the BIS using Python. Here, I add a Stata code snippet to investigate…
The Bank for International Settlements provides access to daily exchange rates. It may be interesting to plot the evolution of exchange rates since the Inauguration Day of the…
In the Stata New 40-1, it is easier to have access to template do-files from the menu. In this blog, I will show how to use a program…
Tomorrow, I will present a recent research written with Joshua Aizenman at the 4th IEAP Meeting: Investor Emotions & Asset Pricing in Lille at the IAE Lille. The…
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
In a few days, Alfonso Ugarte from BBVA will release an updated version of his package LOCPROJ. In this new version, the LPGRAPH command has been greatly improved…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In this blog, I will show how to estimate Panel VAR with the new command xtvar introduced in StataNow. The dataset comes from a paper of mine on…
NEW PUBLICATION: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly…
In his recent article in Foreign Affairs, Nicholas Eberstadt explores the consequence of a world gone gray. Most of the country in the world already have sub-replacement fertility…
Let me show you how to use DBnomics to access a subcomponent of ND GAIN scores. I recommend you to consult my blog series on DBnomics before delving…
During the past four years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences and I learned…
In my second SUERF policy brief, written with Joshua Aizenman, you will learn about how CESEE countries get back to the fast track: https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/how-can-central-eastern-and-southeastern-europe-cesee-countries-get-back-on-the-fast-track Our empirical results identify…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of local and global geopolitical risks (GPR) on real equity returns. Using a panel and country-specific local projections (LP) model,…
Let me show you how to add a third dimension on a bivariate maps in this second update of my blog on drawing bivariate maps for the Chinese…
Last week, I noticed the publication of a new research in Energy Economics by Hakan Yilmazkuday: Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices. Energy…
Allow me to share that I published my second working paper for the Asian Development Bank: Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial…
It is a delight to present our NBER paper, co-authored with Joshua Aizenman, in the DG-E research seminar of the European Central Bank on Thursday, November 21, 2024.…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the first time for a two-day workshop on “Energy Transition and Climate Change” in the city of Redondo…
I am delighted to announce that I will be a visiting scholar at the Bank of France from the 21st to the 31st of October. That is an…
Last Monday, I had the chance to welcome Hiro Ito for a research seminar at the University Paris 8. We had interesting discussions about this provocative question: Can…
Very honored to contribute my fourth guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. The recent literature establishes that climate risk reduces the fiscal space,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
In our new working paper, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, we find that political stability together with financial development matter for the negative…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
In this post, I will show you how to reshape ICRG data faster. The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) dataset is maintained by the PRS group. In their…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a more systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
This post is based on two videos posted by Vasilis Sarafidis on his YouTube channel. In the first one, he presents briefly the theory about the rank condition…
The Bank for International Settlements has produced a formidable effort to construct historical series for central bank total assets. The data and the methodology are available on their…
As some of you may know, I have growing interests in the field of Political Economy. It appeared that the set of explained variables that I studied in…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
During the past twenty years, the US monetary policy has been characterized by an alternance of easing and tightening cycles. We can easily distinguish five cycles. The tightening…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
Alfonso Ugarte Ruiz from BBVA research introduced the locproj package: s459204. The package is very useful, and I will show you how to customize the LP impulse response…
A good way to visualize panel data with Stata is to rely on the package panelview created and maintained by Yiqing Xu: Other possibilities include Ben Jann’s heatplot:…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
A small update of the following blog if you want to remove Turkey:
After three blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After two blogs on how to draw maps with Stata for the NUTS regions and on how to download data from DBnomics, this time I will show you…
After a series of blogs on maps, today, I will show how to draw a map for the East Asian and Pacific Region, following the World Bank classification.…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
After a series of blogs where I explained the functioning of the DBnomics package: www.jamelsaadaoui.com I will show how to directly download the Vulnerability Index built by the…
In his last post, Cullen S. Hendrix from the PIIE proposed to measure friendliness and like-mindedness using mean absolute distance with the US for two variables, the polyarchy…
Did you know that you can use an API to display instability scores computed from GDELT data? Below, an example for the French region (first administrative level): https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
When you are interested in geopolitical risks, up to some point you will heard about the GDELT project: https://www.gdeltproject.org Here, the brief description on their website: A Global…
In these uncertain times when history and geopolitics are of utmost importance for economics, let me draw your attention to this website with very nice timelines: https://www.cfr.org/timelines The…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
Let me draw your attention to this very useful inflation and interest tracker made by the Financial Times. It offers plenty of interactive visualizations per country about the…
Last week, I saw this picture in a post written by Ziad Daoud, the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. It would be interesting to explore if ex-ante…
Happy to announce that I now have a Medium page: https://medium.com/@jamelsaadaoui, where I will make a selection of my best blogs on EconMacro. These blogs will stay free…
During the 16th FIW conference, I had the chance to attend the policy panel on the “Tectonic shifts in the international economic order”. Giorgia Giovannetti gave us some…
The levels of Geopolitical Risks are now close to those of the Cold War, as mentioned by Cullen S. Hendrix in this PIIE chart: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/2020s-mark-return-cold-war-levels-geopolitical-risk. What does it…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
In his last book, La Défaite de l’Occident, Emmanuel Todd, a French historian and demographer, argues that the infant morality rate is higher in the US than in…
After a series of blogs on Maps, I will show how to use GADM data to draw maps for Austria at 4 different administrative levels. I thank Derek…
Today, I will build on my previous blogs to show you how to draw a map of United Nations General Assembly Voting Data with Stata (see here for…
Usually in Statistics, time is a continuous quantitative variable that uses the interval scale when we are looking at dates (the ratio scale when we elaborate on duration,…
The most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given for regions of…
Today, I will build on my two previous blogs to show you how to use an alternative projection for the maps. Indeed, you need a projection when you…
Today, I will build on my previous blog to show you how to merge two macroeconomic series, draw maps and think about some correlations in three simple steps:…
Using maps can be a good way to visualize the spatial dispersion of the data. I made a series of blogs on drawing maps on Stata available in…
This post has been inspired by a fascinating discussion with Hiro Ito, Eric Clower and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak. In an old paper of mine (j.econmod.2015.02.007) written in 2015, I…
In this blog, you will learn to use the Denton method with Stata to interpolate a series to a higher frequency. I will show you a simple example…
Stata 18 est sorti en avril, j’aurai le plaisir d’animer un webinaire pour Timberlake. Ce webinaire présentera trois nouvelles commandes très prisées des utilisateurs : Nous organiserons une…
I will give my first training session for Timberlake, the 26th October 2023 at 9 – 11 am BST / 10 – 12 pm CEST: www.timberlake.co.uk The short…
Today I will present you VAR_NR, a Stata module to estimate set identified Structural VAR. This toolbox has been provided by Abigail Kuchek, Jonah Danziger and Christoffer Koch. On EconPapers,…
It is my 100th blog on EconMacro! I tried to provide some tips to access to knowledge all along these blogs. The idea is to try to make…
After first blogs on how to launch Stata and visualize high-frequency data in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following example, you will first see that Mathematica offers a…
Let me draw your attention to these very nice resources posted by Menzie Chinn in his International Symposium on Forecasting 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International…
After two first blogs (here and here) on how to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook. In the following file, you will see that Stata can be helpful…
You want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and associate…
Good news! In the new version of Stata 18, we have a new command that produces local-projection impulse–response functions. You can find the complete description of the command…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In my previous blog, I recall that we can demonstrate in a few steps that the sample variance is an unbiased estimator of the population variance when we…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize CES production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus…
In this post, I will show how it is simple to visualize production functions with Wolfram Alpha. I build upon the very pedagogical YouTube video of Klaus Prettner…
Let me repost this compilation of data sources posted by Menzie Chinn in the very interesting blog EconBrowser. This compilation is a must-read for every student in economics!
Let me draw your attention to this very pedagogical GAUSS blog on the Kalman filter. It links very well the theory and the code. Please find below the…
This is it! You now need 1 dollar to buy 1 euro. To get this picture below, I used the FRED connection with Mathematica 13.1, as I explained…
Do you want to launch Stata in a Jupyter Notebook? In the following file, you will see how to launch and use Stata from a Jupyter notebook and…
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Sherlock Holmes.A…
After a first blog about the Statistical Atlas of the European Commission (The Statistical Atlas) and a second one on how to draw maps with Stata (Drawing Maps…
The temptation to form premature theories upon insufficient data is the bane of our profession. Sherlock Holmes.The Valley of Fear, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1915). In this blog,…
I wisely started with a map, and made the story fit (generally with meticulous care for distances). J. R. R. Tolkien (1954) In this blog, I will show…
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