NEW PUBLICATION: This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks—geopolitical turning points—i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. We document that…
NEW PUBLICATION: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium,…
Truly honored to present my views on the economic implications of geopolitical risks during a research webinar at the Bank Al-Maghrib on Wednesday 25 March 2026. I am extremely…
Yesterday, Stata published a spotlight blog on instrumental-variable local projection impulse-response functions built around the ivlpirf command. The point is important. Local projections are already widely used in…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines the effects of sentiment shocks on economic conditions, with an emphasis on the roles of uncertainty and state dependence, using monthly U.S. data…
NEW PUBLICATION: Using data from around 100 countries between 1995 and 2019, we examine the impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risk. We also explore the transmission channels…
Recently, new research published in the Journal of International Economics shows that the Nickell bias affect panel local projections even when the lagged term for the dependent variable…
Macroeconomics maintains a set of very useful “intuitions” that provide insights into very complex phenomena. Slack periods follow downturns, markets subsequently adjust after shocks, and openness leads to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on global Travel & Leisure (T&L) stock returns using a Multivariate Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (MQQR) approach. Focusing on…
NEW PUBLICATION: The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze the…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to capture…
Climate watchers and oil traders are again looking at the same charts. In early autumn 2025, the United States Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory. Sea…
Dummy variables are among the simplest yet most powerful tools in econometrics. They allow us to represent qualitative differences such as crisis versus non-crisis periods, treated versus untreated…
NEW PUBLICATION: The intensification of global oil market linkages has elevated the relevance of geopolitical risk (GPR) as a determinant of trade patterns and energy security exposure. This…
This is my first-ever blog on Machine Learning! A major novelty in the latest version of Stata, Stata 19, is the implementation of Machine Learning. Today, I will…
Israel’s economy is now 7% below its pre-war trend. Unlike the COVID-19 recession, this time there is no quick rebound. The plucking model fails under conflict, where instability…
NEW PUBLICATION: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries have…
If you are a macroeconomist interested in impulse response function analysis, you need to watch this presentation by Christian Wolf during the 40th Annual NBER Conference on Macroeconomics,…
During the past five years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences, and I learned…
In this blog, I will show you how to download and plot high-frequency data (HFD) for the EURUSD currency pair. The data comes from Polygon.io (you need to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to…
In my third Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about how political stability and trade restrictions…
In this blog, I will show you how to plot a 3D plot based on a two-way fixed effect panel model with an interaction term. The data and…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on two concurrent events: the Red Sea Crisis,…
NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…
In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also…
We are delighted to earn the Scottish Journal of Political Economy Prize for the Best Paper published in 2024 for our joint research with Yifei Cai and Yanrui…
NEW PUBLICATION: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested constant…
NEW PUBLICATION: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies. This…
NEW PUBLICATION: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant and…
NEW PUBLICATION: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries observed…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
In this recent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, Atsushi Inoue, Òscar Jordà and Guido M. Kuersteiner offer a survey of the best practice about recent…
NEW PUBLICATION: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly…
During the past four years, I was very lucky to work and discuss with very interesting and reliable people. I went to very captivating conferences and I learned…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a linear…
In my second SUERF policy brief, written with Joshua Aizenman, you will learn about how CESEE countries get back to the fast track: https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/how-can-central-eastern-and-southeastern-europe-cesee-countries-get-back-on-the-fast-track Our empirical results identify…
In my first SUERF policy brief, written with David Bloom, Klaus Prettner, and Mario Veruete, you will learn about how AI may affect the wage skill premium: https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/how-will-artificial-intelligence-affect-the-skill-premium…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how financial…
In my second Vox EU column, written with David Bloom, Klaus Prettner, and Mario Veruete, you will learn about how AI may affect the wage skill premium: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/expansion-ai-will-likely-shrink-earnings-inequality…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
In this recent paper, Olea-Montiel, Plagborg-Møller, Qian and Wolf “provide a formal proof of Jordà’s claim that conventional LP confidence intervals for impulse responses are surprisingly robust to…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
This post is based on two videos posted by Vasilis Sarafidis on his YouTube channel. In the first one, he presents briefly the theory about the rank condition…
Allow me to share this ADB blog written by Donghyun Park and Irfan A. Qureshi. Based on our recent joint publication in the Journal of International Money and…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
In Stata, you can write long commands over several lines. You have basically three choices: first, change the end-of-line delimiter to ‘;’ with the following commands : “delimit…
In Stata 18, you can easily create the “Table 1” for your research work using the new dtable command. In the following, I will show how to use…
In the following working paper, we assess the relative resilience of emerging countries during US monetary cycles. One possible measure of resilience is the number of months to…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we…
NEW PUBLICATION: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over…
As we recall in a recent article, written with Valérie Mignon, oil production facilities may be military objectives during a war or a conflict: Mignon, V., & Saadaoui,…
NEW PUBLICATION: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving the…
Last week, I saw this picture in a post written by Ziad Daoud, the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. It would be interesting to explore if ex-ante…
Today, let me draw your attention to two recent papers published in the Journal of Econometrics that deal with the Local Projection (LP) method introduced by Òscar Jordà…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
NEW PUBLICATION: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship…
This post has been inspired by a fascinating discussion with Hiro Ito, Eric Clower and Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak. In an old paper of mine (j.econmod.2015.02.007) written in 2015, I…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
After a first blog presenting our paper on Artificial Intelligence and a second one presenting the Mathematica notebook that explains step-by-step the calculations. Let me draw your attention…
The companion notebook for our paper has been selected into the Staff Picks into the Wolfram community blog: community.wolfram.com. This notebook aims to replicate all the computations in…
In my first Vox EU column, written with Joshua Aizenman, Sy-Hoa Ho, Luu Duc Toan Huynh and Gazi Salah Uddin, you will learn about some stabilizing properties of…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary…
NEW PUBLICATION: We can use Fourier Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, time-varying fiscal reaction functions and threshold fiscal reactions functions. Over the period spanning from 1870 to 2017, we…
NEW PUBLICATION: The answer is yes. When the credit-to-GDP ratio is above 96.5%, the effect of a further development of bank credit on the economic growth is not…
NEW PUBLICATION: It was very interesting to explore how political tensions between China and the US impact the oil market. The originality of our approach lies in the…
NEW PUBLICATION: It was a really nice experience to explore the links between innovation and macroeconomics. We find that R&D intensity is stationary in the G7 countries when…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper was written last year with my friend Sy-Hoa Ho. We met ten years ago in the University of Paris North during the preparation of…
NEW PUBLICATION: I am very grateful to my colleagues Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Meixing Dai, Claire Mainguy, Moïse Sidiropoulos, Isabelle Terraz and Jamel Trabelsi for all their efforts and for…
To allow national fiscal stabilizers to work, governments must be able to borrow at an affordable cost in times of economic stress. A strong fiscal framework is indispensable…
Even with more flexible economies, internal adjustment will always be slower than it would be if countries had their own exchange rate. Mario Draghi (2015). The title of…
Entre le déclenchement de la crise de l’euro et le vote britannique sur la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’Union Européenne, nous avons assisté à une réduction massive des…
It was a real pleasure to participate in the 9th EUROFRAME conference which took place in June 2012 at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The conference…
Cette recherche a été motivée par deux types de critique portant sur les taux de change d’équilibre. Le premier type de critique porte sur les incertitudes entourant les…
This research has been motivated by two lines of criticism about equilibrium exchange rates, the first one bears on the uncertainties surrounding the measurement of equilibrium exchange rates…
As far as I remember, I always wanted to be a researcher in social sciences. It is great pleasure for me to share with the world, my first…
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