Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the widespread deployment of automation technologies such as industrial robots and artificial intelligence (AI) affect long-run economic performance? To address this question, we…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks on U.S. oil futures and goods market prices from 1983:03 to 2024:10 via the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper shows that geopolitical risk is an important predictor of tail risks in the investment growth distribution. Using the growth-at-risk framework, we document that…
This is my first-ever blog on Machine Learning! A major novelty in the latest version of Stata, Stata 19, is the implementation of Machine Learning. Today, I will…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines how U.S. monetary policy shocks influence asset price bubbles under different inflation regimes. Using data from 1998-2023, we show that the transmission…
Israel’s economy is now 7% below its pre-war trend. Unlike the COVID-19 recession, this time there is no quick rebound. The plucking model fails under conflict, where instability…
In this blog, I update a previous blog of mine using an orthogonalized version of the religious tension variable coming from the international country risk guide (ICRG). Orthogonalization…
During the 27th INFER conference, I had the chance to present a recent paper on the impact of climate vulnerability on fiscal risks. In this paper, we show…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
For an ongoing project about the drivers of recessions for a large cross-section of countries observed between 1990 and 2022, I have to compute the number of quarters…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Recently, I had a very bad experience with a referee report. Basically, he/she told me that our paper has too many tables and that the number of tables…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Copper and lithium are essential to the global energy transition, each playing distinct roles in enabling low-carbon technologies. However, their supply chains are highly vulnerable…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We identify the negative influence of nationalist sentiment on economic growth. Our cross-country evidence confirms the growth-depressing effect of nationalism, projecting that economic growth has…
In this new version of this paper, written with Yifei Cai, we find evidence of time-varying scapegoating: The shocks in US Partisan Conflict provoke a decrease of the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates the impact of consumer confidence shocks on economic conditions. We estimate consumer confidence innovations using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and…
Allow me to share a small update about work, I found an easy way to plot the impulse response function using the beta release of RATS 11, and…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast…
In our recent update working paper, Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Fiscal Risk: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century. In this study, we analyze…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study aims to predict currency, banking, and debt crises using a dataset of 184 crisis events and 2896 non-crisis cases from 79 countries (1970-2017).…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper considers 18 OPEC countries that were low-income countries when oil was found. Oil has given the countries a special path to high income.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I explore the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict and global oil prices over the last 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections, I find…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of political polarization on output growth, capital formation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) across 139 economies via a panel Local…
In a previous blog, I covered the estimation of state-dependent local projection using LOCPROJ. The impact of random shocks of change in vulnerability affects positively the sovereign bond…
In this recent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, Atsushi Inoue, Òscar Jordà and Guido M. Kuersteiner offer a survey of the best practice about recent…
In the last version of my working paper on the impact of climate risk on fiscal space, we use Joyplots to visualize the distribution of the ND-GAINS vulnerability…
A few days ago, I read the Country Risk Annual Report made by BBVA research and Alfonso Ugarte and David Sarasa Flores, in particular. On the slide 26,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates nonlinearities in the inflation-growth-uncertainty relationship in Chinese provinces over the period 1992 to 2017 using nonlinear models and dynamic panel threshold models.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
Allow me to share my second ADB blog written by John Beirne, Donghyun Park and Gazi Salah Uddin. Based on our recent joint ADB Economics working paper: Climate…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries…
In our last research, Joshua Aizenman and I examine the behavior of exchange rates after the 2024 US Presidential election. Our identification strategy for the causality relies on…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of local and global geopolitical risks (GPR) on real equity returns. Using a panel and country-specific local projections (LP) model,…
Allow me to share that I published my second working paper for the Asian Development Bank: Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Do Political Stability and Financial…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath exposed the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, leading to widespread delays and shortages that highlighted the interconnectedness of economies.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries…
A recent Bank of England working paper by Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel suggests using a one-step approach with appropriate controls in the LP estimations. Lloyd, Simon &…
In our new working paper, written with John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin, we find that political stability together with financial development matter for the negative…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We analyze the relationship between climate risk and fiscal space in a more systematic and rigorous way. To do so, we use panel local projections…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study examines the impact of international reserves on real exchange rate (RER) stability in the Europe and Central Asia (ECS) region, focusing on how…
MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that…
It is my 200th blog on EconMacro, let me enjoy this opportunity to announce that I am now an External Consultant at the Asian Development Bank. Let me…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This research investigates the intricate dynamics between the catalytic effect of projects financed by international institutions and geopolitical interests. Through the construction of a monthly…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How will the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) affect the skill premium? To address this question, we propose a nested…
“A rising tide floats all boats… Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The role of institution quality may be hidden during…
Commerce is a cure for the most destructive prejudices…wherever we find agreeable manners, there commerce flourishes; and that wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners.…
Very honored to contribute my second guest blog post on Econbrowser, written this time, with William Ginn. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: What will likely be the effect of the emergence of ChatGPT and other forms of artificial intelligence (AI) on the skill premium? To address this…
Very honored to contribute my first guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program was supposed to stimulate the real economy and be able to control inflation rates. Nevertheless, primarily…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper examines the role of foreign exchange (FX) reserves and other fundamental factors in explaining cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We investigate the role of collective wage bargaining institutions on the relationship between wage growth and unemployment, that is, the wage Phillips curve. Based on…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper aims at assessing the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Thanks to various Fourier DF unit root tests, time-varying fiscal reaction functions and threshold regressions, this study examines the stationarity and the sustainability of public…
NEW WORKING PAPER: According to the Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory, the efficacy of R&D is lowered by the proliferation of products. To be consistent with empirical data, the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: While it is widely recognized that the development of a sound financial system may contribute to foster economic growth, the relation between economic growth and…
We’re supposed to be living in an era where human beings have become the dominant influence on the environment, but COVID-19 has revealed the fragility of our societies and the…
The demand for money is likely to depend upon the exchange rate in addition to the interest rate and the level of income; this would slightly reduce the…
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