Tag: Local Projections

US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating? (Applied Economics Letters)

NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…

How Robust Is the Link Between Growth and Fiscal Consolidations Under Global Uncertainties? A Reassessment for Sub-Saharan Africa (Finance Research Letters)

NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…

Critical Minerals Data Explorer

In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…

Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Financial Leverage (International Review of Financial Analysis)

NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a linear…

Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks in Unstable Environments

MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…

Leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg

Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…

How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices? (Energy Economics)

NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…