Quantile LP with Stata
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…
NEW PUBLICATION: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast to…
In this new version of this paper, written with Yifei Cai, we find evidence of time-varying scapegoating: The shocks in US Partisan Conflict provoke a decrease of the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates the impact of consumer confidence shocks on economic conditions. We estimate consumer confidence innovations using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and…
I am delighted to announce that I will be in Paris in three weeks for the 46th IAEE International Conference. This International Conference is organized by the International…
I am delighted to announce that I will travel to Italy for the 2025 IAAE Italy International Association for Applied Econometrics. This International Conference is organized by the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We revisit the relationship between fiscal tightening and economic growth within the Sub-Saharan African context, employing a local projection framework augmented with instruments. In contrast…
Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025, during my…
In this blog, I will show you how to improve the visualization of the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). I will leverage…
NEW PUBLICATION: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant and…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
In a series of previous blogs on the impact of climate risks on the fiscal space, I present some features of our ADB working paper written with John…
In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…
In this recent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, Atsushi Inoue, Òscar Jordà and Guido M. Kuersteiner offer a survey of the best practice about recent…
NEW PUBLICATION: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a linear…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of local and global geopolitical risks (GPR) on real equity returns. Using a panel and country-specific local projections (LP) model,…
During the 4th Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Empirical Modeling of Financial Markets: New Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets that took place at the beginning of this week…
MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…
In this recent NBER working paper, Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor offer a survey of the best practice about recent developments on Local Projections (LP). The paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study investigates the impact of supply disruptions on financial leverage (debt-equity ratio) in the U.S. economy from 1998:Q1 to 2024:Q1. The study employs a…
In a recent article published in the Journal of econometrics, we have some further insights about the bias-variance trade-off between IRF (Impulse Response Function) produced by the VAR…
Very honored to contribute my second guest blog post on Econbrowser, written this time, with William Ginn. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via…
Yesterday, I went to Corvinus University to present my paper: How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?, co-authored with Valérie Mignon, in the main research…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
Very honored to contribute my first guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program was supposed to stimulate the real economy and be able to control inflation rates. Nevertheless, primarily…
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