An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to geoboundary, the Stata package provided by Asjad Naqvi. Drawing maps…
In previous research of mine, I proposed a simple and efficient method to identify what I called the geopolitical turning points — unexpected change in bilateral geopolitical relationships.…
After a series of blogs on the GDELT database discussing how to start with these big data (https://www.jamelsaadaoui.com/tag/gdelt-data/), I propose to update the blog covering the bilateral relationship…
Today, I will show you how to use the package of Ibrahima Amadou Diallo, xtnptimevar, that estimates non-parametric varying coefficients in panel data models with fixed effects. We…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
Today, we will see how to draw maps with Stata for the largest cities in the world. I used geoplot with multiple frames and an orthographic projection. I…
Today, I update the most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given…
NEW PUBLICATION: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Allow me to share a small update about work, I found an easy way to plot the impulse response function using the beta release of RATS 11, and…
We are delighted to earn the Scottish Journal of Political Economy Prize for the Best Paper published in 2024 for our joint research with Yifei Cai and Yanrui…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
After some insightful email exchanges with Lutz Kilian, I was wondering whether oil market uncertainty and geopolitical risk are related. To measure oil market uncertainty, I use the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper investigates nonlinearities in the inflation-growth-uncertainty relationship in Chinese provinces over the period 1992 to 2017 using nonlinear models and dynamic panel threshold models.…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads…
Today, I repost a blog written by Richard Baldwin on LinkedIn. The post is outstanding and gives multiple very interesting insights about current development on the economic consequences…
Let me show you how to add a third dimension on a bivariate maps in this second update of my blog on drawing bivariate maps for the Chinese…
In this blog, I will show you how to visualize the time-varying coefficients of the estimator proposed by Inoue et al. (2024). The dataset used in this blog…
Delighted to announce that I will travel to the US for the first time for a two-day workshop on “Energy Transition and Climate Change” in the city of Redondo…
A recent Bank of England working paper by Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel suggests using a one-step approach with appropriate controls in the LP estimations. Lloyd, Simon &…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
Following my previous blog on currency composition of reserves, we can present the Ito-McCauley database on individual Central Bank reserve holdings. The database is available here and is…
The Bank of Finland just released a policy brief introducing a new database on the composition of international reserves: https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53793 The authors are Falk Laser, Alexander Mihailov, and…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me provide a small update of the following blog. The main difference will be that I will…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that…
Estima, the company that develops and sells the RATS software, has released a new version of their online help. Notably, they incorporated the user guide version of the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary…
1 Introduction This short note aims to demonstrate the drawing of choropleth maps at different regional levels thanks to Natural Earth Data and GADM data. Drawing maps on…
After two blogs on how to start with GDELT data, I will show how to construct a histogram of bilateral Goldstein score for bilateral events between the US…
Asjad Naqvi released a new version of the bimap package, let me show a small example of how this package works with some regional data for China. I…
Very honored to contribute my third guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/.
NEW PUBLICATION: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over…
In terms of global oil demand, some believe it. In future years, India may become the new leader in terms of economic growth. Some structural features hinder the…
Commerce is a cure for the most destructive prejudices…wherever we find agreeable manners, there commerce flourishes; and that wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners.…
Yesterday, I went to Corvinus University to present my paper: How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?, co-authored with Valérie Mignon, in the main research…
Le lundi 12 février prochain, j’aurai le grand plaisir d’animer une leçon doctorale à l’école doctorale Augustin Cournot (ED 221) — Université de Strasbourg. Risques géopolitiques, tensions politiques…
The most complete blog of mine on maps with Stata. I used spmap, grmap, geoplot with one frame and multiple frames. Other examples are given for regions of…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
It is a great pleasure and an honor to announce that I wrote my first blog for APTECH with Eric Clower. In this blog, we will look more…
NEW PUBLICATION: It was very interesting to explore how political tensions between China and the US impact the oil market. The originality of our approach lies in the…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper aims at assessing the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate…
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