Tag: Python

Joint Inference in LP: Wald Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Bands

Joint Inference in LP: Wald Tests and Simultaneous Confidence Bands A response curve can have a 95% simultaneous confidence band that includes zero at every horizon and still…

Not All Geopolitical Turning Points Are Alike: Oil Price Effects and Implications for Energy Security Policy (SSRN Working Paper)

NEW WORKING PAPER: Energy-security decisions often treat geopolitical risk as a common source of upward oilprice pressure. This paper tests that premise using monthly event-specific AI-GPR indices, real…

Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring (Oxford Review of Economic Policy)

NEW PUBLICATION: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium,…

Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring

NEW WORKING PAPER: Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global criticalmineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including…

Drawing an Interactive Map for the Geopolitical Risks with Jupyter

Over the past few years, geopolitical tensions have become one of the main macroeconomic risks facing the global economy. To track these developments more systematically, I recently produced…