Tag: Time-Varying Local Projections

US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating? (Applied Economics Letters)

NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local…

BOFIT Research Seminar

Truly honored to present our Monash Discussion Paper, written with Russell Smyth and Joaquin Vespignani, at the BOFIT (Bank of Finland) research seminar on Tuesday 29 April 2025, during my…

Critical Minerals Data Explorer

In a recent publication in Energy Economics, we found that geopolitical risk will drive up the price of several critical minerals, especially during episodes of heightened geopolitical tensions.…

Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks in Unstable Environments

MAJOR WP UPDATE: How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via constant…