An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
NEW PUBLICATION: The intensification of global oil market linkages has elevated the relevance of geopolitical risk (GPR) as a determinant of trade patterns and energy security exposure. This…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
Pleased to announce that 10 articles have been published in our special issue of European Journal of Political Economy. Saadaoui, J., Barbier-Gauchard, A., & Strum, J.-E. (2025). Geopolitical…
Pleased to announce that 8 papers have been already published in our special issue of European Journal of Political Economy. https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10QWWKJQLXQPlease take a look if you are interested…
I am delighted to announce that I will be a visiting scholar at the Bank of France from the 21st to the 31st of October. That is an…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that…
After a previous post on mapping the Political Ties with Stata, let me show how to compute how to create an idea point relatively a specific country. This…
Very honored to contribute my second guest blog post on Econbrowser, written this time, with William Ginn. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome,…
Yesterday, I went to Corvinus University to present my paper: How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?, co-authored with Valérie Mignon, in the main research…
During the 16th FIW conference, I had the chance to attend the policy panel on the “Tectonic shifts in the international economic order”. Giorgia Giovannetti gave us some…
The levels of Geopolitical Risks are now close to those of the Cold War, as mentioned by Cullen S. Hendrix in this PIIE chart: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/2020s-mark-return-cold-war-levels-geopolitical-risk. What does it…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
Very honored to contribute my first guest blog post on Econbrowser. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always: https://econbrowser.com/
It is an immense pleasure to announce that the call for papers for the European Journal of Political Economy issue is now online. Please have no hesitation to…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
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