A strong dollar creates uneven pressures across economies. During the 2021–22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle, countries that entered the episode with larger foreign exchange reserves experienced smaller currency…
An improvement in relations between major powers can lower oil prices today and raise them later. The paper interprets this sequence through an initial decline in precautionary demand…
A modest change in the average investment forecast can coexist with a substantial deterioration in the downside. Our new paper shows where geopolitical risk leaves its clearest mark.…
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