Truly honored to present the results of our box in the Asia Bond Monitor on the consequences of oil supply shocks on sovereign risk repricing during the second RBV–ADB–APAEA joint online workshop on Friday 20 November 2026. I am extremely grateful to John Beirne for the invitation. Stay tuned for more information.
Oil supply shocks and sovereign bond yields: The role of local currency bond markets (provisional title)
Oil supply disruptions can transmit to sovereign financing costs through inflation expectations, monetary policy, and the compensation required to hold long-duration debt. This paper estimates the response of 10-year sovereign bond yields to identified adverse oil supply shocks in a monthly panel of 51 economies. Local projections incorporate market fixed effects, lagged domestic conditions, and a split-panel jackknife adjustment. The full-sample response rises persistently, reaching approximately 15 basis points after 24 months, and remains similar when US sovereign yields enter the specification. The corresponding response is 26.0 basis points in emerging and developing economies and 8.5 basis points in advanced economies. State-dependent estimates for 47 markets associate deeper local currency bond markets with smaller yield increases. At month 24, the response is 10.5 basis points in deeper government bond markets and 20.4 basis points in shallower markets. Corporate and total bond-market depth display the same ordering. The findings connect energy supply disturbances to domestic financing structures and support policies that broaden domestic investor participation, strengthen market infrastructure, and sustain a predictable policy environment.
My research has been presented in several central bank settings over the recent period, reflecting sustained engagement with policy-relevant empirical work: at the Bank of Thailand (1) in May 2024 (during the ABD-PIER conference), the Bank of France (2) in October 2024 (during a visiting scholar appointment), the European Central Bank (3) in November 2024 (ECB research seminar of the Euro Area External Sector and Euro Adoption Division in the Directorate General Economics), the Bank of Finland (4) in April 2025 (BOFIT research seminar during a visiting scholar appointment), the Bank of Korea (5) in August 2025 (during the ABD-JIMF-BOK conference and a research seminar), the Bank of Israel (6) in September 2025 (during the VIMM webinar), the Bank of Latvia (7) in October 2025 (research seminar), the National Bank of Slovakia (8) in January 2026 (research seminar), the Bank of England (9) in January 2026 (research seminar), the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (10) in February 2026 (research webinar), the Central Bank of Suriname (11) in February 2026 (research “hands-on” webinar), the Bank Al-Maghrib (12) in March 2026 (research webinar), the South African Central Bank (13) in September 2026 (research webinar), the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (14), and the Central Bank of Malta (15).