Real‑time Measure of Perception Divergence: France’s Political‑Tension Situation

The chart below tracks a 28‑day weighted moving average of political‑tension sentiment for France, normalized by France’s own history. It splits coverage by media origin. On Sep 21, 2025, the index reads −0.4 for National media (neutral/slightly below average tension) and +2.4 for Foreign media (high tension). These wonderful datasets are freely available on the following BBVA Research website: https://bigdata.bbvaresearch.com/en/geopolitics/

What you will learn

• How to read the political‑tensions sentiment index and what “normalized by a country’s own history” implies.
• What the last 12 months say about France’s risk narrative in domestic vs. international coverage.
• A simple, actionable signal: the Foreign–National wedge as an early‑warning indicator for markets and policy monitoring.
• Practical tips when using news‑based indicators.

Figure 1 — Political tensions sentiment index in France by media origin (1‑year window)
28‑day weighted moving average; normalized by France’s own history. Latest (Sep 21, 2025): National −0.4; Foreign +2.4.
Alt text: “Line chart showing France’s political‑tension sentiment from Sep. 2024–Sep. 2025 with two series: National (blue) mostly negative to neutral, and Foreign (gold) mostly positive and ending sharply higher.”

What this indicator measures

• Sentiment source: news text classified under a political‑tensions taxonomy; daily signals are smoothed to a 28‑day average to reduce noise.
• Normalization: scores are scaled by France’s own historical distribution, so “+2.4” means “high relative to typical French history,” not “high vs. other countries.”
• Interpretation: Positive values → higher political‑tension risk; negative → lower risk vs. historical norms.

What the last 12 months show

1. Autumn 2024: Foreign coverage sits above zero while National coverage is slightly below; early sign that international outlets perceive more tension than domestic media.
2. Turn of 2024–25: Both series crest into positive territory, but the Foreign line peaks higher and earlier, consistent with global amplification of geopolitical/political stories.
3. Spring–Summer 2025: National sentiment sinks well below zero (low‑tension zone at points), while Foreign sentiment stays around neutral to mildly positive.
4. September 2025 (now): A sharp divergence: Foreign = +2.4 (High) vs. National = −0.4 (Neutral).
   • Wedge = Foreign − National = +2.8. That is a large gap by construction and worth monitoring closely.

Note: The chart notes an interpolation between June 14 and July 1 due to a data feed outage; brief, fast‑moving events in that window may appear smoothed.

Why the National–Foreign wedge matters

• Different editorial lenses. Domestic outlets may emphasize institutional process and everyday politics; international outlets may spotlight conflict and spillover risk.
• Information frictions. Foreign press often condenses complex local dynamics into risk‑centric narratives, elevating tension scores during uncertain episodes.
• Market relevance. International investors price global narratives. A persistently positive Foreign index can prefigure wider risk premia even when domestic tone looks calm.

Rule of thumb: Track the wedge (Foreign − National). Rising gaps—especially when Foreign > 1 and National ≤ 0—flag asymmetric risk perception.

How to use this in practice

• Nowcasting dashboards. Add the National, Foreign, and Wedge series next to EPU, protest counts, CDS/OAT‑Bund spreads, and EUR crosses.
• Thresholding. Treat Foreign ≥ 2 (High) with a wedge ≥ 2 as a watch condition for headline‑risk days and liquidity stress.
• Event study. Around policy events or flashpoints, look for reversion (wedge closes) vs. persistence (stays wide) to judge whether tensions are resolving or metastasizing.
• Cross‑country comparison. Because scores are within‑country normalized, compare wedges, not raw levels, across countries to avoid scale artifacts.

Methodology & Warnings

• Smoothing vs. timeliness. A 28‑day moving average cuts noise but lags turning points. Complement with higher‑frequency proxies if you need intra-month signals.
• Classification uncertainty. News taxonomy and language coverage can shift; use confidence bands where available and avoid overinterpreting day‑to‑day wiggles.
• Normalization. “High” means high for France’s own history, not high in an absolute or cross‑country sense. Use wedges or standardized z‑scores for cross‑market work.
• Data outages. The chart documents an interpolation period in mid‑June 2025—treat that segment with caution.

Bottom line

France’s domestic media currently signals neutral‑to‑slightly‑low tension (−0.4), while international media prints high tension (+2.4). The resulting +2.8 wedge is a clean, real‑time measure of perception divergence. Until that gap closes, expect foreign‑led narrative risk to remain elevated—even if the domestic conversation appears calmer.