NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict, and global oil prices over the past 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections and time-varying local projections, empirical evidence supports the scapegoating hypothesis. In the scapegoating hypothesis, an increase in US partisan conflict leads to a rise in US-China tension and a reduction in global oil prices in the medium term. This research highlights a new channel through which the domestic economy can be impacted by geopolitical tensions.
You can find the preprint version, the abstract, the keywords and the online appendix in an older post:
You can quote this article as:
Cai, Y., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating? Applied Economics Letters, 2522908.
