NEW PUBLICATION: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on the…
Truly honored to present my latest CAMA Working Paper during an IMF-CEF and EMEA research webinar on Thursday 9 April 2026. Stay tuned for more information. Geopolitical Turning…
Yesterday, Stata published a spotlight blog on instrumental-variable local projection impulse-response functions built around the ivlpirf command. The point is important. Local projections are already widely used in…
An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Mordor where the…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
We are delighted to earn the Scottish Journal of Political Economy Prize for the Best Paper published in 2024 for our joint research with Yifei Cai and Yanrui…
Today, I share a video that I did for the fantastic Youtube channel of Klaus Prettner. I hope it will be useful for students and practitioners. Comments and…
In 10 days, I will present a recent research in the French/Japanese conference on Asian and International Economies in an Era of Globalization. In this research, we use…
In terms of global oil demand, some believe it. In future years, India may become the new leader in terms of economic growth. Some structural features hinder the…
Commerce is a cure for the most destructive prejudices…wherever we find agreeable manners, there commerce flourishes; and that wherever there is commerce, there we meet with agreeable manners.…
Yesterday, I went to Corvinus University to present my paper: How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?, co-authored with Valérie Mignon, in the main research…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the effect of US–China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures, the Political Relationship Index (PRI)…
NEW WORKING PAPER: We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates,…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the effect of US-China political relationships and geopolitical risks on oil prices. To this end, we consider two quantitative measures — the…
Nothing left to load.