Truly honored to have written a joint research with Russell Smyth, Joaquin Vespignani, Yitian Wang titled Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring. The paper will be presented by me at the International Conference: The Scramble for Critical Minerals on Tuesday 26th November 2025. This conference is organized by by FERDI, CERDI (UCA, CNRS, IRD) and the University of Oxford. Stay tuned for more information. The program is available here.
Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global critical-mineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals including aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Using monthly data from 1995-2025 and a structural VAR-local projection framework, we estimate the dynamic effects of exogenous shocks to the U.S.–China Political Relations Index on mineral markets. We find that geopolitical deterioration systematically induces significant precautionary stockpiling, consistent with expectations of supply disruption. To rationalize this behavior, we develop a theoretical model in which a net-importing country optimally increases refined inventories as geopolitical risk rises. We then construct a multidimensional friend-shoring index incorporating reserves, alignment, regime type and distance, showing that only a narrow set of U.S. partners, primarily Australia and Canada, offer feasible pathways for refining diversification. The results highlight the central role of refined stockpiling in U.S. supply-chain resilience.
Stay tuned for more information.
