Truly honored to present our research on Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions, written with Fabio Anobile, Francesco Frangiamore, and Marco Maria Matarrese at the Bank of England during a financial stability research seminar on Tuesday 27 January 2026. I am extremely grateful to Isabelle Roland for the invitation. Stay tuned for more information.
Geopolitical tensions and investment-at-risk
This paper shows that geopolitical risk is an important predictor of tail risks in the investment growth distribution. Using the growth-at-risk framework, we document that higher geopolitical risk predicts lower left tails while having no impact on the other parts of the distribution. Higher geopolitical risk is associated with higher financial uncertainty and a lower consumer sentiment, especially when GPR shocks are large, thus explaining the effects on the investment-growth distribution. Moreover, such distribution becomes wider and more left skewed in periods of heightened geopolitical risks.
Previous research presented in Central Banks:
May 2024—Bank of Thailand
August 2024—Central Bank Research Association
October 2024—Bank of France
November 2024—European Central Bank
April 2025—Bank of Finland
August 2025—Bank of Korea
September 2025—Bank of Israel