NEW WORKING PAPER: Using local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant impact on Euro Area sovereign stress, whereas GPR shocks originating in Germany generate sizable effects, against the backdrop of the recent surge in geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
You are welcome to download, share, or comment on the following working paper:
- Frangiamore, F., & Saadaoui, J. (2026). Geopolitical risk and sovereign stress in the Euro Area (January 22, 2026). Available at SSRN: 6113006.
