An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper shows that geopolitical risk is an important predictor of tail risks in the investment growth distribution. Using the growth-at-risk framework, we document that…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
When I wanted to make local projections with quantile regressions, no simple solution was available until Alfonso Ugarte released the newest version of his Stata package locproj. The…
The replication package of the Debt-at-Risk paper from the IMF is available here: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/05/05/Debt-at-Risk-566595 It has been released by Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei R Lam,…
In the latest edition of the Stata News, I learned that Stata has adapted the Bayesian quantile estimator of Yu and Moyeed (2001). You need to have access…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we…
When I wanted to make some simple graphs on quantile regressions, I was quite surprised to not find a nice blog where each step is clearly explained over…
NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper assesses the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end,…
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