Bank Al-Maghrib Webinar

Truly honored to present my views on the economic implications of geopolitical risks during a research webinar at the Bank Al-Maghrib on Wednesday 25 March 2026. I am extremely grateful to Sara Loukili for the invitation. Stay tuned for more information.

On the economic implications of geopolitical risks

This webinar offers a synthesis of my recent work on the macroeconomic and financial implications of geopolitical risks. It will highlight how international political tensions, geoeconomic shocks, and the growing fragmentation of the world economy are transmitted through several channels: oil and critical raw material prices, trade and maritime networks, supply chains, financial markets, exchange rates, and, more broadly, monetary and financial conditions.

One of the central lessons from this research is that geopolitical shocks often have a stagflationary nature: they weigh on activity, trade, and confidence, while at the same time fueling inflationary pressures through higher energy prices, supply constraints, and uncertainty. The webinar will also emphasize the heterogeneity of these effects across countries, institutional quality, and the degree of external exposure, as well as the implications for the conduct of monetary policy, financial stability, and the resilience of open economies.

The aim is therefore to provide an integrated analytical framework for geopolitical risks, useful for macrofinancial surveillance, the assessment of external vulnerabilities, and the strategic thinking of central banks in an international environment that is likely to remain durably more uncertain.

My research has been presented in several central bank settings over the recent period, reflecting sustained engagement with policy-relevant empirical work: at the Bank of Thailand in May 2024 (during the ABD-PIER conference), the Bank of France in October 2024 (during a visiting scholar appointment), the European Central Bank in November 2024 (ECB research seminar of the Euro Area External Sector and Euro Adoption Division in the Directorate General Economics), the Bank of Finland in April 2025 (BOFIT research seminar during a visiting scholar appointment), the Bank of Korea in August 2025 (during the ABD-JIMF-BOK conference and a research seminar), the Bank of Israel (during the VIMM webinar) in September 2025, the Bank of Latvia in October 2025 (research seminar), the National Bank of Slovakia in January 2026 (research seminar), the Bank of England in January 2026 (research seminar), the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye in February 2026 (research webinar), and the Central Bank of Suriname in February 2026 (research “hands-on” webinar).

Stay tuned for more information.

References

Published

• Aizenman, J., Ito, H., Park, D., Saadaoui, J., & Uddin, G. S. (2026). Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions: What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022? Journal of International Money and Finance, 161, 103504. Open Access thanks to a grant from the Université Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis.
• Ferrara, L., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Measuring Geoeconomics. Revue d’Économie Financière, 160, December 2025.
• Tao, M., Che, S., Qi, L., Wu, L., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Global Oil Trading Networks: Structural Patterns and Geopolitical Risks. Energy Economics, 151, 108965. Open Access thanks to a grant from the Université Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis.
• Cai, Y., Saadaoui, J., & Uddin, G. S. (2025). US Partisan Conflict, Sino-US Political Relation News, and Oil Market Dynamics. Energy Economics, 149, 108820. Open Access thanks to a grant from the Université Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis.
• Cai, Y., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating? Applied Economics Letters, 2522908.
• Necati, A., Eski, I. H., Ginn, W., Saadaoui, J. (2025). Effect of Geopolitical and Environmental Disruptions on Maritime Trade Security. Economics Bulletin, 45(2), EB-25-V45-I2-P73.
• Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Equity Returns. International Economic Journal, 39(3), 2518947.
• Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). ​Do Supply Chain Disruptions Matter for Global Economic Conditions? The World Economy, 48(7), 1534-1551, 10.1111/twec.13713.
• Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). ​Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks in Unstable Environments. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29, e90. 10.1017/S136510052500015X.
• Oriola, H., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). ​Exchange Rate Reaction to International Organization Loans and Geopolitical Preferences. Economics Letters, 248, 112212. Open Access thanks to a grant from the Université Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis.
• Saadaoui, J., Barbier-Gauchard, A., & Sturm, J.-E. (2025). Geopolitical Risks, Political Tensions and the European Economy, European Journal of Political Economy, 86, 102644.
• Saadaoui, J., Smyth, R., & Vespignani, J. (2025). Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals. Energy Economics, 142, 108195. Open Access thanks to a grant from Monash University.
• Mignon, V., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Asymmetries in the oil market: accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 29, e38, 10.1017.
• Afonso, A., Mignon, V., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners:“Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”? China Economic Review, 85, 102184.
• Mignon, V., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices? Energy Economics, 129, 107219.
• Cai, Y., Saadaoui, J., & Wu, Y. (2024). Political relations and trade: New evidence from Australia, China, and the United States. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 71(3), 253-275, 12367. Open Access thanks to a grant from the University of Western Australia.
• Cai, Y., Mignon, V., & Saadaoui, J. (2022). Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market. Energy Economics, 114, 106199.

Unpublished

1. Saadaoui, J., Russell, S., Vespignani, J. & Yitian, W. (2026). Use-specific Storage Premia and Market Stabilization for Critical Minerals in the Presence of Geopolitical Risk. Available at SSRN: 6217320.
2. Saadaoui, J., Strauss‐Kahn, V., & Creel, J. (2026). How geopolitics influences the exports of Chinese firms. Available at SSRN:  6130286.
3. Frangiamore, F., & Saadaoui, J. (2026). Geopolitical risk and sovereign stress in the Euro Area. Available at SSRN: 6113006.
4. Saadaoui, J., Smyth, R., Vespignani, J., & Wang, Y. (2025). Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring. Available at SSRN: 5860082.
5. Anobile, F., Frangiamore, F., Matarese, F., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions (September 27, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5536200.
6. Saadaoui, J. (2025). Geopolitical Turning Points and Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bilateral Identification Strategy. Available at SSRN: 5366829.
7. Vespignani, J., Smyth, R., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Strategic Stockpiling Reduces the Geopolitical Risk to the Supply Chain of Copper and Lithium. Available at
8. Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence (No. w33193). National Bureau of Economic Research.