NEW WORKING PAPER: This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement and macroeconomic assessment of geopolitical tensions. We first survey the growing set of quantitative indicators designed to capture the intensity and dynamics of geopolitical risks. We then discuss how these indicators can be integrated into econometric models—such as Structural VARs and Local Projections—to estimate the effects of geopolitical shocks on key macroeconomic and financial variables. Empirical evidence suggests that geopolitical shocks are typically stagflationary, depressing output and investment while raising commodity prices and inflation through trade disruptions, supply constraints, and currency depreciation. Together, these developments provide a quantitative framework for understanding how rising geopolitical tensions reshape the global economy.
You are welcome to download, share, or comment on the following working paper:
- Ferrara, L., and Saadaoui, J. (2025). Measuring Geoeconomics (November 03, 2025). Available upon request.
