In a recent research, we found that Liberation Day as an exogenous shock of US partisan conflict may produce: “an approximately 0.3-point increase in US-China tension. It also resulted in a medium-term decrease in global crude oil prices by 0.2 U.S. dollars per barrel. These effects are sizable, since the average monthly variation of global crude oil prices is around 0.14 U.S. dollars per barrel.”
Cai, Y., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). US-China Tensions, US Partisan Conflict and Global Oil Prices: Scapegoating? Available at SSRN 5195676.
The EIU forecasts that oil prices will fall by US$ 8 per barrel since the beginning of the year, with the fallout from Trump’s trade war fuelling market uncertainty and raising concerns of a US recession.
