In three previous posts on the use of Geopolitical Turning Points as instruments for bilateral geopolitical relation, I presented the working paper, the underlying logic of the instrument,…
NEW PUBLICATION: This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks—geopolitical turning points—i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the…
Truly honored to present my latest CAMA Working Paper during an IMF-CEF and EMEA research webinar on Thursday 9 April 2026. Stay tuned for more information. Geopolitical Turning…
Yesterday, Stata published a spotlight blog on instrumental-variable local projection impulse-response functions built around the ivlpirf command. The point is important. Local projections are already widely used in…
An important problem in empirical macroeconomics is that geopolitics can influence economics in the long run. Relations between major powers evolve endogenously with trade, growth, financial conditions, and…
Over the past years, I have worked on a broad set of papers on geopolitical risk, macroeconomic dynamics, and international economics. If I had to identify one paper…
A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians, do not really like the concept of Granger causality. To some extent, the essence of the concept of Granger causality…
NEW WORKING PAPER: I investigate the dynamic causal impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China, two major players in the oil markets. Following previous work on…
Nothing left to load.