NEW PUBLICATION: This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on two concurrent events: the Red Sea Crisis, encompassing disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Suez Canal, and Cape of Good Hope, and the severe drought affecting the Panama Canal. By analyzing cargo ship transit data before, during, and after these events, the study quantifies the effects of both geopolitical and environmental disruptions on global trade dynamics. The findings reveal displacement and increased volatility in trade patterns, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of such crises on international commerce. These results emphasize the need for geopolitical stability and environmental resilience in key trade routes, offering valuable insights for policymakers in the global trade network.
You can quote this article as:
Necati, A., Eski, I. H., Ginn, W., Saadaoui, J. (2025). Effect of Geopolitical and Environmental Disruptions on Maritime Trade Security. Accepted in Economics Bulletin.
