Truly honored to present our research on Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions, written with Fabio Anobile, Francesco Frangiamore, and Marco Maria Matarrese at the Bank of England during a financial stability research seminar on Tuesday 27 January 2026. I am extremely grateful to Isabelle Roland for the invitation. Stay tuned for more information.
Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions
This paper shows that geopolitical risk is an important predictor of tail risks in the investment growth distribution. Using the growth-at-risk framework, we document that higher geopolitical risk predicts lower left tails, while having no impact on the other parts of the distribution. We document higher uncertainty during periods of heightened geopolitical risks, when also the distribution becomes more left-skewed, leading extremely negative outcomes to become more likely. Additional structural analysis based on local projections shows that GPR shocks have larger dynamic effects on the left tail of the distribution, affecting particularly and significantly downside risk.
Anobile, F., Frangiamore, F., Matarese, F., Saadaoui, J. (2025). Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions (September 27, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5536200.
Previous research presented in Central Banks:
May 2024—Bank of Thailand
August 2024—Central Bank Research Association
October 2024—Bank of France
November 2024—European Central Bank
April 2025—Bank of Finland
August 2025—Bank of Korea
September 2025—Bank of Israel