Truly honored to present our research on Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals, written with Joaquin Vespignani and Russell Smyth at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei during a research seminar on Wednesday 11th March 2026. I am extremely grateful to Andrea Bastianin for the invitation. Stay tuned for more information.
Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals
We use constant and time-varying parameter local projection (TVP-LP) regression models to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on prices of six critical minerals: aluminium, copper, nickel, platinum, tin and zinc. We propose a conceptual framework in which the responsiveness of prices for critical minerals to geopolitical risk depends on the non-technical risk associated with procuring each critical mineral and geopolitical threats have a bigger effect on critical mineral prices than geopolitical acts. Our results are generally consistent with these predictions. We find considerable evidence that the effect of geopolitical risk on the prices of critical minerals is time varying, with the Gulf War, 9/11 terrorist attacks and COVID-19 pandemic each having a significant effect. We find that shocks due to geopolitical threats are generally bigger in magnitude than geopolitical acts and that prices respond more quickly to geopolitical threats.
Saadaoui, J., Smyth, R., & Vespignani, J. (2025). Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals. Available at SSRN: 5015057.