Active Working Papers

  1. Saadaoui, J., Smyth, R., Vespignani, J., & Wang, Y. (2025). Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring. Available at SSRN: 5860082.
  2. Bucci, A., Prettner, K., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Robotic versus traditional capital complementarity and economic growth in the era of full automation (November 09, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5726063.
  3. Gallegati, M., and Ginn, W., Saadaoui, J., Solomou, S., & Tian, K. (2025). How Does ENSO Impact U.S. Oil Spot and Future Prices? (September 30, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5549860.
  4. Anobile, F., Frangiamore, F., Matarese, F., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Investment-at-Risk of Geopolitical Tensions (September 27, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5536200.
  5. Ginn, W., Saadaoui, J., & Salachas, E. (2025). Stock Price Bubbles, Inflation and Monetary Surprises (September 21, 2025). Available at SSRN: 5513359.
  6. Saadaoui, J. (2025). Geopolitical Turning Points and Macroeconomic Volatility: A Bilateral Identification Strategy. Available at SSRN: 5366829.
  7. Vespignani, J., Smyth, R., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Strategic Stockpiling Reduces the Geopolitical Risk to the Supply Chain of Copper and Lithium. Available at SSRN: 5341835.
  8. Tao, M., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). The Economic Cost of Nationalism. Available at SSRN 5315609.
  9. Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Are Consumer Sentiment Shocks State-Dependent? Available at SSRN 5278402.
  10. Papadimitriou, T., Gogas, P., Sofianos, E., Giannakis, N. & Saadaoui, J. (2025), Do International Reserve Holdings Still Predict Economic Crises? Insights from Recent Machine Learning Techniques. Available at SSRN 5237256.
  11. Afonso, A., Alves, J., Coelho, J. C. & Saadaoui, J. (2025), Fiscal and External Sustainability: a Two-Step Time-varying Granger Causality Assessment. Available at SSRN: 5137618.
  12. Ginn, W., & Saadaoui, J. (2025). Divided We Fall: The Hidden Costs of Political Polarization on Macroeconomic Performance. Available at SSRN 5119306.
  13. Glawe, L., Saadaoui, J., & Xu, C. (2024). Nonlinearities in the Inflation-Growth Relationship and the Role of Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Provinces. Available at SSRN 5067849.
  14. Aizenman, J., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence (No. w33193). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  15. Beirne, J., Park, D., Saadaoui, J., & Uddin, G. S. (2024). Impact of Climate Vulnerability on Fiscal Risk: Do Political Stability and Financial Development Matter? (No. 748). Asian Development Bank.
  16. Oriola, H., & Saadaoui, J. (2024). How does geopolitical alignment affect the catalytic effect of international organizations loans? Available at SSRN 4849861.
  17. Roderweis, P., Saadaoui, J., & Serranito, F. (2023). The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending. Available at SSRN 4453988.