Unpublished Manuscripts

Unpublished manuscripts and supplementary files (graphs, data and codes) can be found on this page.

Sy-Hoa Ho, Jamel Saadaoui. Bank Credit and Short-Run Economic Growth: A Dynamic Threshold Panel Model for ASEAN Countries. BETA Working Paper 2020-48 (2020). Available at SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3723452

Abstract. We investigate short-run nonlinear impacts of bank credit on economic growth in ASEAN countries. We find an inverted L-shaped relationship and a statistically significant threshold of 96.5%. Positive effects of bank credit expansion on short-run economic growth fade away after this threshold.

Keywords: Bank credit, Economic growth, Dynamic threshold estimation, ASEAN.
JEL Classification: C23, E51, G21, O41.

Amélie Barbier-Gauchard, Meixing Dai, Claire Mainguy, Jamel Saadaoui, Moïse Sidiropoulos, Isabelle Terraz and Jamel Trabelsi. Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis. BETA Working Paper 2020-33 (2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3641306

Abstract. The pandemic crisis constitutes an unprecedented challenge for the European Union and for the Euro Area. Indeed, European institutional architecture can be viewed as being half-way between an association of sovereign states (like the United Nations, for example) and a politically integrated federation (like the United States for example). In this original construction, competences on several matters (such as economic, political, social and health issues, etc.) are shared at the European level, but also at the national and local levels in more complex ways than in fully integrated federations. To improve the resilience of the European Union to violent external shocks, the main objective of this paper is to determine to what extent these competences have to be transferred to the federal level. In this respect, we will consider whether a federal leap is necessary in several areas namely (i) monetary and fiscal policy (rules), (ii) labor markets policy and social models, migratory flows and skill shortages, and cooperation policy and (iii) renewed industrial policy and exchange rates. Despite a highly uncertain context, we outline some perspectives for the future of the European Union.

Keywords: European Union, Pandemic Crisis, Economic Policy, Resilience.
JEL Classification: F33, E52, E62, F22, J61, L52.

Sy-Hoa Ho, Jamel Saadaoui. Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Money Demand: Empirical Evidence From Vietnam. SSRN working paper 3507120 (2019), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507120

Abstract. This empirical investigation aims at exploring the determinants of money demand in Vietnam by using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags models over the period spanning from the third quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2018. Our findings can be summarized as follows: firstly, when the shock is symmetric (i.e. a permanent nominal appreciation of one percent), the money demand increases by 3.7 percent in the long term. Secondly, when the shock is asymmetric, for a permanent nominal appreciation of one percent, we observe an increase of 15.6 percent in the money demand. Whereas, for a permanent nominal depreciation of one percent, we observe a decrease of 7.4 percent in the money demand. These results are consistent with symmetry tests and lead us to think that asymmetries occur mainly in the short run and are transmitted to the long run.

Keywords: Money Demand, Exchange Rate, ARDL models, NARDL models, Dollarization.
JEL Classification: C22, E41, F31, F33 , F41


Stata code for replicate the results of the following article :

Jamel Saadaoui. Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates? Economic Modelling 47, pp. 383-3982015, 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.007

The following dataset has been used in this study :