Bank credit and short-run and economic growth

Economic research, austerity advocates insisted, showed that terrible things happen once debt exceeds 90 percent of G.D.P. But “economic research” showed no such thing; a couple of economists made that assertion, while many others disagreed. Policy makers abandoned the unemployed and turned to austerity because they wanted to, not because they had to.

Paul Krugman (2013).

This working paper is accessible in a PDF version at the end of this post.

Abstract. We investigate short-run nonlinear impacts of bank credit on economic growth in ASEAN countries. We find an inverted L-shaped relationship and a statistically significant threshold of 96.5%. Positive effects of bank credit expansion on short-run economic growth fade away after this threshold.

Feel free to download, share or comment the following working paper:

Sy-Hoa Ho, Jamel Saadaoui. Bank Credit and Short-Run Economic Growth: A Dynamic Threshold Panel Model for ASEAN Countries. BETA Working Paper 2020-48 (2020). Available at SSRN:

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